'Madman strategy' on N. Korea

By Tong Kim

Tensions keep mounting on the Korean peninsula as the U.S. and North Korea ratchet up their mutual threats of a preemptive strike against each other through bellicose rhetoric and saber rattling. There is no question any preventive or preempt strike by one side would instantly lead to a renewed war in Korea, that could spread beyond the peninsula.

It is not new that Pyongyang puts out provocative statements, sticking to its nuclear and missile development. It is new that Washington keeps Pyongyang on notice with the threat of military option, although measured.

Pyongyang’s latest warning: the North could retaliate any U.S. strike with “a super-mighty preemptive strike to reduce the United States to ashes.” The U.S. has warned them of its military option on the table and not to test the U.S. “resolve and strength” that was demonstrated by a recent attack on Syria.

Perhaps, preoccupied with the North, Washington misled people to believe that the Carl Vincent battle group was heading for the Korean peninsula, which Trump called “an armada, very powerful. with nuclear submarines, more powerful than the aircraft carrier.” At the time, the armada was travelling in the opposite direction. Ten days after this flap, the armada is now heading for the peninsula.

The North did not test a sixth nuclear bomb or another ICBM to celebrate Kim Il-sung’s 105th birthday. The next day they launched a failed missile test. Experts believe this had nothing to do with U.S. sabotage by way of cyber hacking. Failures in rocket launches are common; the North Koreans learn from their failures to correct the problems and advance their technology.

Trump’s team seems to have reached a point where they are considering all options available, to increase pressure on the North Korean regime to change its current path. The first option leans on China, backed by the threat of a preemptive strike, which so far seems to have more impact on Beijing than on Pyongyang. Washington’s North Korea policy is still evolving.

In the wake of a Sino-American summit at “Mar-a-Lago,” Trump speaks highly of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, pressing him to rein in Pyongyang’snuclear arsenal. Ironically, this may reflect that there is no other viable option. However, U.S. rhetoric relies more on military might than on diplomacy.

Trump described North Korea as a menace last Thursday and applauded the Chinese for working hard to do something about the menace. Trump said:

“As far as North Korea is concerned, we are in very good shape. We’re building our military rapidly…. We’re going to see what happens.... I have great respect for the President of China…. And, I think he’s working very hard…. We don’t know whether or not they’re able to do that….I actually told him, I said, you’ll make a much better deal on trade if you get rid of this menace of North Korea.”

Vice President Pence and Secretary of State Tillerson have declared: “The policy of strategic patience is over and all options are on the table.” In Tokyo last week, Pence said, “The United States is not seeking to negotiate with North Korea and it is not in direct talks at this time."

Tillerson’s latest comment last Wednesday: “We’re reviewing all of the status of North Korea, both in terms of state sponsorship of terrorism as well as all the other ways in which we can bring pressure to bear on the regime in Pyongyang to re-engage, but re-engage with us on a different footing than the past talks have been held”

As Trump would not “telegraph” what he will or will not do, nobody can tell what will happen on the peninsula. The White House recently said there would be no red line for the North. Trump will take decisive action when he wants. This warning may sound like a bluff, but it is a dangerous one to test.

Are both Trump and Kim Jong-un employing a “madman strategy” evolved from Nixon’s madman theory: if Kim believes Trump is mad enough to use nuclear weapons to get rid of the North’s nukes and ballistic missiles, Kim may be forced to cave in. What happens if Kim Jong-un also uses the madman strategy? The madness will have to be removed. What’s your take?