Shift of Turkish foreign policy

By Mehmet Fatih Oztarsu

The crisis period between Turkey and Russia finally ended. The two sides prepared a long-term normalization process to fulfill a regional partnership and to heal the economic wounds which appeared during the crisis period. A Russian Su-24 all-weather aircraft violated the border of Turkey by at least 2 km and was shot down by two Turkish F-16s on the Turkey-Syria border in November 2015.

After several harsh speeches, Russian officials decided to implement sanctions in some specific areas. Several months later, the meeting of Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Aug. 9 can be accepted as a turning point for regional politics.

After Turkey’s successful “Apology Diplomacy,” the West suddenly started to criticize Turkish foreign policy directions after the normalization process with Russia and the military coup attempt on July 15. Now they are sharing concerns about so-called “Eastern move” of Turkey. The Turkey-Russia convergence can be viewed as a new chance for regional security, especially after current relations worsened over the Syrian issue. Turkey and Russia are important players in this area, and the West should expect much more than a convergence in the coming future. Firstly, trade and energy relations in the region will be normalized. The lack of investment in the Russian “near abroad” have spelt a disaster for the region, as both sides’ economies went downhill in a short period of time. This situation has triggered local conflicts in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

During the first month of the Turkish-Russian conflict, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan offered Turkey use of the Caspian route for the export of its goods. It was not a good solution, but it was an important example that highlights the concerns of regional states. On the energy side, the Turkish Stream and other collaborations have to continue. Russia knows that the location of Turkey is an advantage for Russian energy supplies to the West. President Erdogan’s “izvinite” diplomacy (“apology diplomacy”) worked, and Moscow has declared that the two sides are ready to normalize relations.

What should the West do? In my opinion, the West should support this process. The outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the annexation of Crimea and the Syrian war has put the brakes on Western initiatives in the region.

In this environment, there remain several conflicts and frozen normalization attempts in the region ― including the Turkish-Armenian normalization process ― which Russia and Turkey cannot solve without Western support. In this regard, the Turkish-Russian convergence should be welcomed as an opportunity to breathe new life into efforts to stabilize the region. What does Turkey plan for the future? Turkey takes seriously the importance of realpolitik. It is not logical to give up the Western alliance which has a deep cooperation background with Turkey. Turkey will follow the balance policy since state relations are based on interests. But the East is also attractive for Turkish foreign policy. Especially a new type of cooperation with Russia, China and India should be main priorities for Ankara.

The geopolitical location of Turkey causes new necessities for a balanced policy. It is too early to talk about a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. But an image of Turkey which is surrounded by the West is not an acceptable option. Deceptive approaches of the European Union to Turkey on migration cases created long-term problems in the region. Still, the EU is not aware of the desires of Turkey which is hosting up to 3 million Syrian migrants. Thus Ankara should follow a profitable way. Turkey now faces Western propaganda about an axis shift.

The situation is similar to that of decades ago. In 1964, U.S. President Johnson wrote a harsh letter and warned Turkey that it would not get NATO help against a possible Soviet invasion if Turkey liberated Cyprus.

Turkish Prime Minister Ismet Inonu reacted to this letter and said: “If conditions change and events make a new world order necessary, Turkey will certainly find its place in this new world order.

The writer is a Turkish analyst and journalist of Asia Journalist Association in Seoul. Write to oztarsu@gmail.com.