Fate of Kim Jong-un

By Na Jeong-ju

Politics editor

As North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship escalates, one interesting question is being raised: How long will the Kim Jong-un regime exist?

The leader, whose age is believed to be between 32 and 35, has executed several figures he thought could be potential threats to his tyranny since inheriting the throne from his father in 2011.

The executed men include his uncle-in-law Jang Song-thaek and military chiefs Hyon Yong-chol and Ri Yong-gil.

It appears he has successfully strengthened his grip on power, but whether he will continue to maintain an iron grip on the country is a tricky question.

Recently, there have been many incidents indicating a challenging path forward for Kim. Most of all, the “toughest-ever” sanctions the United Nations imposed following the North’s fourth nuclear test are making it difficult for the country to function as a state in the global arena. Virtually all goods ― as well as people ― to and from North Korea are now being closely inspected.

A former politician who was then President Kim Dae-jung’s special envoy to North Korea in the late 1990s forecast in a recent interview that the North Korean leader will have a tragic end to his life “very soon.”

“His days are numbered,” he said on condition of anonymity. “History shows how tragically tyrants like Kim ended their lives. It is not hard to imagine how Kim’s life will be.

“Look at the number of people he killed. Look at the sea of capitalist changes sweeping the country. It is weird to think that he will stay in power forever.”

The former envoy said he was once a supporter of the late liberal President’s Sunshine Policy, but changed his thoughts after visiting Pyongyang.

The North’s state media continues to show how great Kim is, and how caring he is for its people. However, testimony from those who recently fled the country reveals the other side of the story.

They say the personality cult surrounding Kim is fading rapidly. Many North Koreans are risking their lives to watch South Korean dramas and TV shows secretly. It is not difficult to buy South Korean-made products at markets.

The North’s state media has never reported details of the U.N. sanctions, but they are not a secret to North Koreans. Defectors say news of them spread quickly in marketplaces called “jangmadangs,” almost as soon as the U.N. Security Council announced the bans.

Most North Korean people have started to realize they are not the “happiest” people on Earth. They know their country is being isolated and the godlike images of their incumbent and former leaders are totally fake.

North Korean soldiers are not as loyal as in the past to the country’s leader.

According to defectors, few North Korean soldiers believe they will win if a war breaks out. They know their weapons are old and are not powerful enough to win a fight.

“They have no fuel, no food and no proper weapons to fight with,” a defector said on a TV show. “Loyalty is only a propaganda word for many soldiers.”

The mass defection of 13 North Korean restaurant workers in China in early April could be a good example of how the young North Korean generation feels about its leader and the communist system.

It was a shocking incident for the North because the defectors are mostly the children of ranking North Korean officials. They chose to defect to South Korea instead of living their lives being loyal to the ruling family as their fathers do.

Over time, Kim will face a much greater challenge to his rule. The capitalist changes will certainly trigger internal opposition that in the end could topple him.