Worrying about war

Lee Seong-hyon, right, a China expert at the Sejong Institute, gesticulates at a roundtable hosted by The Korea Times in its conference room, Monday. Clockwise from Lee are the paper’s chief editorial writer Oh Young-jin; Kurt Achin, TBS radio show host; the paper’s columnist John Burton and journalist/copy editor David Nicoll. Michael Breen, who is about to resume his bi-weekly columns, was delayed and is not in the photo. The topic was Seoul’s decision to close the Gaeseong Industrial Complex -- the last vestige of inter-Korean cooperation -- and other North Korea-related issues. / Korea Times photo by Shim Hyun-chul

By Lee Seong-hyon

Three years ago when war correspondents descended upon Seoul, I had a sense that they would waste their time. It was a time when tensions were so high on the Korean Peninsula in the wake of North Korea’s third nuclear test that people were talking about the possibility of another war.

My Chinese friends bombarded me with questions on whether they should cancel their trips to Korea. Some expat English teachers in Seoul were soon on one-way flights back home.

I made a few calls. I met a few people. I found out that North Korean officials were visiting Beijing and promoting tourism. They assured their Chinese counterparts that “nothing will happen.”

Tension was even more highly charged in the aftermath of Pyongyang’s shelling of the South’s Yeonpyeong Island in 2010. The Seoul government was publicly vowing revenge. Some South Korean media outlets were talking about F-16s, hovering over the West Sea, waiting for an order to bomb North Korea. However, my sources told me that they didn’t see F-16s on their radar screens. President Lee Myung-bak at that time ordered the military to “contain” the crisis, I was told. So, I sat back and relaxed.

This time, I feel different. I am worried.

First of all, there is a clear absence of “China” in the management of the current crisis. China is present, but not committed. It’s angry and preoccupied with something else. In the past, China has repeatedly and painstakingly called for “calm” in situations such as these. We don’t see Beijing acting in its usual role as a referee this time. “We are preoccupied with THAAD here. We talk about it every day,” a Chinese interlocutor told me.

We also don’t see the kind of previous partnership between Washington and Beijing who teamed up to jointly deal with Pyongyang either. Mired in the blame game over “Who is responsible for the North Korean issue,” the two are more estranged than before.

In the wake of Kim Jong-un's nuclear test in January 2016, China articulated that it was not ready to "abandon" North Korea and that such chances in the future will be slim. Foreign Minister Wang Yi even declared that China's position will not be swayed by a specific North Korean event. Many interpreted this as China’s “coming out” moment to finally reveal where it stands on the North Korean issue after many years of its own strategic ambiguity.

What is worse, there is also a growing sense in Washington that sees “China’s rise” as inevitably incompatible with the U.S. interests; cooperation will be reduced, conflict will increase. The South China Sea is just another clear example.

This time, even the usually self-restraint South Korea had it enough with North Korea. President Park Geun-hye shut down the Kaesong industrial complex and publicly vowed to “change” the North Korean regime. We have learned that she could be very committed.

I am worried because everyone is angry and there is no referee this time.

Lee Seong-hyon, Ph.D. is a research fellow at the Sejong Institute. He can be reached at sunnybbsfs@gmail.com.