NK missile launch: Iranian links

By Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.

According to several reports the North Koreans successfully put a satellite in to space on Feb. 7.

What it means in the short run:

- This is the second (in a row) successful test of a three-stage ballistic missile. The “satellite test” is simply a cover for North Korea testing the technology for a missile that can target Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the U.S. The technology, design, launch, etc. ― in short, everything ― is exactly the same for a military missile as it is for a “rocket carrying a satellite.” The only difference is the payload, which in the case of a satellite launch would be a bulbous looking object, instead of a warhead, or in the case of most test launches, a dummy warhead (which would look more “triangular”). A satellite launch sends the payload into space as opposed to sending it back down to earth.

- This is the second test (in a row) that shows North Korea has mastered the technology for a three-stage missile. While many pundits will say the missile takes a long time to set up (in this case, less than two weeks apparently), and can thus be taken out before it is launched, that would be missing the point. The point here is for North Korea to test their three-stage ballistic missile technology so that it can use this technology in other missiles that would conduct a military mission.

- This test launch took less time to set up and was conducted (successfully) more covertly than any other launch in North Korean history.

- This launch appears to be of a new, improved (much larger) version of the Taepo Dong. The North Koreans have been collaborating on an 80-ton rocket booster for an improved (larger, with longer range) version of the Taepo Dong for at least the past two years with Iran. The North Koreans have also been expanding the facility in the Northwest part of the country to accommodate a larger missile for the past two years.

- If this is in fact the new, improved version of the missile, it now means that North Korea has successfully tested the largest missile with the longest range ever in its inventory. Thus, North Korea continues to take important steps in improving its ballistic missile technology.

- Despite knowing that this test would cause outrage in the international community and even with its key ally, China, North Korea went forward with it. This likely means that the Iranians are paying the North Koreans billions of dollars to conduct three-stage ballistic missile technology tests on their behalf. Thus, we can expect more tests like this in the future. We also can expect to see shipments of ballistic missile components to Iran in the near future.

What the ROK and US can do about the missile test:

- In the short run the ROK and the U.S. can immediately increase sanctions against North Korea. But the important thing here is more implementation than the sanctions themselves. Sanctions are already in place that could hurt North Korea _ yet have not _ because key aspects of North Korea’s economy (illicit activities and proliferation specifically) operate largely outside of the global economic system.

- Immediately, steps should be taken to do the following: The United States needs to upgrade and maintain strong BMD in both East Asia and the Middle East. This should include providing our allies in Israel upgrades to BMD systems (because of North Korean ballistic missile proliferation to Iran and Syria), and intelligence on developments in Iranian missile programs. In East Asia, we should encourage our allies in South Korea to make badly needed purchases of SM-3 missiles for their Aegis-equipped ships, upgrades to PAC-3 PATRIOT systems, and deployments of the THAAD system to the Korean Peninsula. South Korea should also be encouraged to join the U.S.-led BMD system (as Japan has done).

- In the more forward looking aspect of this, Washington should actively take on North Korea’s sophisticated worldwide proliferation networks. This must include collaborative efforts by the State Department and the Treasury Department, working with international law enforcement and banking authorities, to go after the front companies and banks that hide North Korea’s illicit money obtained from proliferation efforts. While sanctions are important, they will not have a significant impact on proliferation unless backed up with strong efforts from the international banking and law enforcement community (led by the United States). North Korea – quite literally – operates its proliferation networks outside of the international system (much like a mob family). These illegal and illicit efforts – by estimates from both the State Department (in 2008) and the Congressional Research Service (in 2010) comprise about 40 percent of North Korea’s real economy, and containing or constraining them will give the U.S. significant leverage with a government that is already one of the most isolated in the international community. Kick starting these American efforts to take this challenge on will initially take months to get rolling _ but will hit North Korea where it hurts the most (the pocketbook) as they begin to take action against front companies and banks ― which in the case of banks means that if North Korean funds are not frozen out, American assets will (based on Treasury Department initiatives) not do business with any bank that does business with North Korea.

What to expect in coming weeks:

- The very important first stage of the rocket separated and fell into the ocean just off of South Korea’s West Coast, so the data that salvage operations will recover will be important to gaining insights on North Korea’s latest long-range ballistic missile technology (as it was in 2012).

- Determining if this was in fact the improved version of the Taepo Dong that has been in development (in collaboration with Iran) will be important – because it will be the impetus for potential actions against both North Korea and Iran.

- Determining new sanctions, and the individuals, banks, and front companies these sanctions should be focused on, will be important. More important will be the actual enforcement of these sanctions – because without enforcement (as it has been since 2008), sanctions mean little. A good first step would be to take active Proliferation Security Initiative measures – immediately. Another good first step has already been taken by the ROK – closing down of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. This endeavor has in the past been used as leverage against the South – despite the fact that it has been financed by the South. The funds that will no longer be coming into North Korean coffers will hurt Pyongyang in the pocket book – and other nations with an interest in the region should take note.

Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is a professor of political science at Angelo State University, and is the author or editor of six books on North Korea, most recently "North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma." Contact him at bruce.bechtol@angelo.edu.