Cuban thaw but Castro brothers still rule

By John J. Metzler

UNITED NATIONS ― One of the last legacies of the Cold War has ended with Washington reestablishing diplomatic ties with Cuba after a 53-year break in relations. Yet another enduring legacy of that era continues; the unchallenged rule by the Castro family dictatorship, which has outlasted 11 American presidents, won the waiting game, and still controls the Caribbean island state.

Just weeks ago while visiting the JFK Presidential Museum in Boston and viewing the Kennedy era of which the confrontation with communist Cuba played a central part, I wondered if and when the Obama administration would rationalize a change in ties with Cuba under the hubristic banner of “smart diplomacy.” Well it has.

Barack Obama’s move to normalize relations and change what the President called an “outdated approach” to the diplomatic dilemma very much echoes Jimmy Carter’s diplomatic opening to China. In December 1978 when Congress was out of session for the Christmas break, President Carter announced a seismic shift in U.S. policy by opening American diplomatic ties to the People’s Republic of China, the world’s largest dictatorship. The surprise break with Taiwan cased a bipartisan political backlash to Carter’s move with criticism from both sides of the aisle in Congress.

According to Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), “these changes will lead to legitimacy for a government that shamelessly abuses human rights but it will not lead to assistance for those whose rights are being abused.” Senator Rubio, himself a Cuban-American, added, “It’s absurd and it’s part of a long record of coddling dictators and tyrants.”

Senator Bob Melendez (D-NJ) added, “President Obama’s actions have vindicated the brutal behavior of the Cuban government… trading Mr. Gross for three convicted criminals sets an extremely dangerous precedent. It invites dictatorial and rogue regimes to use Americans serving overseas as bargaining chips.”

Echoes of Jimmy Carter. With Congress out of session, Obama decided to make the Cuba move getting some concessions such as the release of American citizen Alan Gross in exchange for three Cuban agents held in the U.S. For political cover, Barack Obama recounted how Pope Francis was instrumental in helping facilitate the political deal to renewed ties with Havana.

At the U.N., Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warmly welcomed the reestablishment of relations between Washington and Havana.

Rationalizing a chance to change the political and economic landscape in Cuba, the Obama diplomatic recognition in effect rewards one of the world’s most ossified dictatorships in which authoritarian political control has the trappings of one party rule, press censorship, banned trade unions, crackdowns on dissidents and secret police torture. Washington gained little apparent leverage from the deal.

Yet after the loss of communist Cuba’s Soviet patrons in the 1990s the island has seen its stagnant socialist economy deteriorate. Recent oil assistance from its comrade Venezuela has not stopped the downward slide.

So, are the Castro brothers willing to court the long reviled U.S.? Yes and no.

Still there’s a counterintuitive side to the equation. Since the U.S. has not toppled nor significantly changed the Castro rule since the 1960s, would another style and strategy work?

The Castro regime has long politically justified itself as a self-styled socialist David standing up to the Colossus of the North, the U.S. When Washington opens diplomatic and eventually trade ties, we deflate and marginalize Castro’s central argument by removing the regime’s cherished Yanqui scapegoat. With focused diplomacy, we may even bring a whiff of political oxygen into a stale political debate.

While Washington’s move to reestablish diplomatic relations is not necessarily an endorsement of the political regime (we recognize China and Venezuela for example), the separate economic embargo dating from the Kennedy administration in 1962 remains the core issue.

The embargo is the annual target of a General Assembly resolution where the U.S. is massively outvoted and condemned for maintaining the economic embargo, lifting the formal blockade needs Congressional approval. This is unlikely with the new Republican Congress.

There’s already a quiet trade relationship with Cuba consisting of American agricultural exports to the Caribbean island; in 2013 the amount was $359 million. An American tourist influx to Cuba is expected as restrictions are being eased.

Once again, Washington’s Cuba policy becomes a political lightning rod both with the Cuban-American community in Florida but also across the U.S. as presidential elections approach in 2016. Not surprisingly, political fallout from this decision may well impact the next election.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He’s the author of "Divided Dynamism the Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China” (2014). Contact him at jjmcolumn@earthlink.net.