Reading North Korean Intent

By Tong Kim

The surprise visit of the three most powerful officials serving North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to the South on Oct. 4 caught most people off guard.

Yet it was not the first time the North has orchestrated an unexpected move toward the outside world. During their stay of less than 12 hours, the delegation had a luncheon with ranking South Korean officials of comparable responsibility, including Prime Minister Chung Hong-won, Presidential Security Adviser Kim Kwan-jin, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae and Minister of Culture, Tourism and Sports Kim Jong-deok.

The North Koreans congratulated their athletes who finished in seventh place at the Asian Games with 36 medals, including seven gold, before the trio attended the closing ceremony with the South Korean officials sitting side-by-side in the same row of seats. The North Koreans then thanked the South Korean spectators for their support for the DPRK athletes.

The visit also coincided with pervasive rumors that the young North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has a serious health problem. He has been seen limping, and the official North Korean media described him as being “in discomfort.” Kim has not been seen in public for more than a month. Some rumors even claim that Pyongyang has sealed off the North Korean border, presumably because of an attempted coup.

Against a backdrop of such apparent instability, the visit by the three ranking members of the DPRK’s ruling elite naturally stirred up North Korea watchers and media pundits to speculate on the reasons why. As usual, some of the analysis was as wild as the rumors.

Vice Marshall Hwang Pyong-so, vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission — the highest decision-making body in the North — led the trio. Hwang is also director of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) general political department.

The two other members were Choe Ryong-hae, a Workers’ Party secretary and Sports Guidance Commission chairman, who had previously held Hwang’s current posts, and Kim Yang-gon, also a party secretary and ministerial-level director of the United Front Department. He is a veteran in handling South-North relations.

Before we discuss Pyongyang’s possible intent, we should perhaps recall Hwang’s conciliatory statement: “We should build on a small path to a big corridor” of inter-Korean dialogue. The most meaningful outcome is that a second meeting of the “high-level inter-Korean contact,” which Seoul initially proposed in August, will take place toward the end of October or early November.

The question being asked is why the trio arrived with only a day’s notice? Pundits have suggested a variety of reasons: to reach out to the South in addition to countries such as Russia and Japan to make up for souring relations with China; to explore economic assistance from the South; to take international attention off the nuclear and human rights issues; to exploit internal divisions within the South; to suppress speculation about Kim Jong-un’s health and an alleged coup in Pyongyang; and to solidify domestic support for the Kim Jong-un system.

Each of these views — or some combination of them — may have valid grounds. However, as difficult as it is to read what the North Koreans really have in mind, we can safely rule out many of these claims.

Firstly, Kim Jong-un may have gout that causes him to limp, added to a weight problem that could lead to other complications. He is still young, however, and remembering his family history, it does not appear he has a serious medical problem preventing him from attending state affairs. His father often skipped attending important occasions. Kim Yang-gon told Minister Ryoo the young leader “has no health problem.”

The trio’s visit does not seem to be related to an urgent need to get economic relief from the South, either. With some signs of an improving economy defying the efficacy of international sanctions, the North Koreans did not ask for an immediate resumption of inter-Korean talks. The delegation also declined to meet President Park Geun-hye, and brought no personal letter for her from Kim Jong-un.

It is true that Pyongyang faces an unfriendly international community, most recently over the North’s alleged human rights abuses, which as far as the North is concerned is an “internal affairs” issue. It does not appear that this issue would affect its central interest of survival. Condemnation of the alleged rights abuses and calls for the North to improve human rights have not brought any positive response so far.

Some conservative commentators claim the North is trying to deepen the division between the right and left in South Korea regarding its policy toward the North. They also claim the visit is proof that the Seoul government’s hard-line policy of principles is working. Both these claims are dubious. President Park has launched a Unification Preparations Committee to build a policy that most citizens will support. There is no evidence that the North has yielded to Seoul’s policy.

The most plausible motivation is that the visit was for domestic consumption as witnessed in Pyongyang’s big welcome-back celebrations for its returning athletes. Yet the North Korean media reported nothing about the diplomatic conversations between the three visitors and their South Korean counterparts. What’s your take?

The author is a visiting scholar at the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University, a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies and an ICAS fellow in the United States.