Putin unchained

By Henrique Schneider

There is a small but fundamental mistake in the actual discourse on Russia, the Ukraine and the like.

Western Press is trying to get a fix on the ghosts of the Cold War. EU-ropeans are surprised by Putin's uncalled belligerence. And Professor Obama just says that Russia’s actions are not the way civilized people should behave in the 21st century.

Well, here is the news: cold war has never been dead, belligerence is not Putin’s monopoly and someone should tell the Chairman of the Ivory Tower that it is not a question of what people ought to do, but what they actually do.

Yes he can!

Independently from many domestic reasons ― be they populism, national pride, and the economy and so on ― there is also a simple reason for Russia’s recent actions that is grounded in geo-strategy. Putin acts as he wishes because he can. And he can, because the “West” lets him do as he pleases.

While the EU did not realize that soft power is not a political reality, the U.S. even dismantled whatever pressure it had over Russia.

George W. Bush, as controversial as he was, still had some means: the U.S. missile defense complex in Poland, also called the European Interceptor Site (EIS), was part of the Ballistic Missile Defense European Capability of the U.S.

It was intended to be located in Redzikowo, Poland, forming a Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system in conjunction with a U.S. narrow-beam midcourse tracking and discrimination radar system located in Brdy, Czech Republic. On Sept. 17, 2009, the Obama administration announced that plans for the project had been scrapped.

“Hear, hear the signal” must have sounded in Putin’s ears. He who has defined the doctrine of “Russian sphere of influence” implying that he was not willing to accept any challenge to Russia’s interests, must have read the signs.

Combined with an older doctrine according to which space is the only defense for Russia, Putin stood his ground in Syria and makes clear his intentions in Crimea (and perhaps soon on Odessa). In the absence of any military deterrence, the rational agent acts maximizing his utility. In short: Mr. Putin is free to do what he pleases.

The fundamental mistake made by the “West” not only concerns Russia. Different countries (for example, China and Japan) have a strong sense of sovereignty and are willing to use belligerence as a means of underlying their aims.

This may come as a surprise, but they are even willing to use force. The EU and the U.S. taking refuge in academic divagations over the nature of peace, stability and humanity do not impress any of those nations that do not partake the prioritization of these values.

If peace, stability and humanity are important values ― and they are ― their proponents must be ready to defend them. Readiness explicitly means showing force. Soft power needs a very hard basis including the appropriate hardware of force.

Dismantling a missile-defense system is a show of capitulation. Accepting flight control zones over internationally-claimed territories also belong to this category. Letting China parade their fleet in front of Taiwan and Japan is tantamount to inviting them to test their freedom of action.

Make security ― not war!

Does this all mean that the “West” has to brace for war? No. Not at all. But it should be prepared to defend its values and its own freedom. Defending means talking, but also building up capacity. Military capacity.

The writer is chief economist of the Swiss Federation of Small and Medium Enterprises (Switzerland). His email address is hschneider@gmx.ch.