Positive progress on peninsula

By Tong Kim

Hundreds of separated family members from both sides of the Korean Peninsula will meet at the snow-covered Mt. Geumgang as scheduled Feb. 20-25, thanks to the final agreement in a high-level inter-Korean contact Friday. This is a big breakthrough to the long deadlock of inter-Korean dialogue.

The North’s decision to delink the military exercises from the family reunion was not a surprise as Pyongyang seemed to have a pragmatic interest in making progress in dialogue for future gains. Pyongyang could not afford to keep breaking its promises at the last minute as it did last September.

The two sides also agreed to end mutual slander and vituperation and to meet again to discuss the other pending issues of interest to each side.

Whatever the motive or the strategy each side may have had in mind to engage each other in the first vice ministerial level contact in seven years, the outcome of their talks should be hailed as a good re-start to improvement of inter-Korean relations.

In addition to the agreement on three areas ― reunion of the families, suspension of slander and resumption of dialogue ― the high-level contact was the first opportunity to explain each other’s positions.

The North learned firsthand about the “trust-building policy” of the Park government. The South was briefed on the Kim Jong-un regime’s “genuine intent” to improve relations with the South.

The essential element of President Park’s policy is to build trust and cooperate with North Korea to resolve the issues of security, denuclearization and economic prosperity toward peaceful unification.

The North Korean delegation, headed by a veteran expert in inter-Korean negotiation, Won Dong-yun, deputy director of the Unification Front, must have noticed that Seoul is not seeking the collapse or absorption of the North.

The South listened to the North Korean claims that Pyongyang’s recent offers of dialogue is genuinely intended to improve relations and they are not carried out as “a peace offensive.” The South reconfirmed how sensitive the North is to “slander to the dignity of the leader” and to ROK-U.S. joint military exercises.

The North Korean side must have learned how concerned the South is about the North Korean nuclear weapons program, and that the North must show some signs of progress in denuclearization, if it wants economic assistance from the South.

In the National Defense Commission’s Jan. 16 proposal, Pyongyang also offered a discussion to “avoid nuclear calamity.”

At the inter-Korean high-level contact, the North made it clear that denuclearization is not an issue to discuss between the North and the South, although the senior North Korean delegate said, it is still the behest of the deceased “great leader” Kim Il-sung.

What the North referred to as “avoidance of nuclear calamity” was clarified to mean prevention of a nuclear war, not denuclearization.

While Seoul and Washington were more focused on preparedness to any dangerous security development ― internal or external ― in the wake of the execution of Jang Seong-thaek, Pyongyang apparently has decided to seek an exit from its diplomatic isolation, by offering Seoul a series of proposals for dialogue and holding unusual press conferences in major capitals of the world.

The North Koreans have learned that their provocations, even when they may be designed for domestic consumption, incur international losses instead of gains.

The execution of the North Korean leader’s uncle was a domestic incident, and the leaders in Pyongyang must not have thought enough of its negative international impact.

Pyongyang seems to have achieved a level of stability, although it still faces the challenges of economic troubles and further political consolidation.

The North knows that Washington is not interested in “talks for the sake of talks” and it would not be accepted as a nuclear armed state, as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reiterated last Thursday in Seoul. Its ties with China, the lifeline to the North, have been strained.

It may sound like a broken record that Secretary Kerry and the Chinese leaders agreed in Beijing last week to increase pressure on the North to come forward on denuclearization.

Most analysts agree the denuclearization of North Korea is a long haul, as the North is determined to keep its nuclear weapons as the last means of survival.

The first step should be an effective freeze on the nuclear program under international inspection. This approach was taken but failed before.

Yet, there is no other attractive alternative, as long as a peaceful, diplomatic solution is sought. Six-party members should keep working toward the end state of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula.

For the process of denuclearization and unification, the role of improved inter-Korean relations cannot be overemphasized. President Park’s trust-building process has just started taking concrete steps by taking off on the high-level contacts between the Blue House in Seoul and the Unification Front in Pyongyang with the direct instructions of both leaders. Establishment of this channel is an important achievement by itself.

Ideally, if the two sides build trust, cooperate, reduce tension, and make progress for denuclearization, they can ultimately create such a security environment with international cooperation for the North not to feel threatened.

Only then could a complete, verifiable denuclearization be achievable. The North would be far better off with economic cooperation of the South than without, and the North knows it.

Despite increased talk of unification and its jackpot or economic bonanza, unification still seems to be a dream, a cherished beautiful dream for the Korean people.

Even just to make this dream a bit more realistic, the latest breakthrough is a welcome development. What’s your take?

The author is a visiting scholar at the Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University, a visiting professor at the University of North Korean Studies and an ICAS fellow in the U.S.