Second-term-itis

By Michael L. McManus

Well, this is not meant to be a word game, but it almost looks like one. You could read the title three ways. First, you might think I am writing about Obama’s second term, that it is, what is, and there nothing to do about it! That is not what this about. Second, you might think I am talking about the insects, termites, which destroy houses. No, not that either. That would be too much a play on words!

Rather, I am going to voice some common concerns about what happens to Presidents of the United States of America when they get into their second term of office, their last four of an eight-year contribution to history. It is not simple, but it has a pattern from Roosevelt to Eisenhower, to Johnson, to Nixon, to Reagan, to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama.

It is “second-term itis” as in a common problematic syndrome. It affects Americans and the whole world. The word “itis” usually is used in medicine to describe conditions or syndromes which are harmful, with symptoms continuing toward a chronic, long-term weakness. Commonly, appendicitis, diverticulitis, tonsillitis suggest an acute condition usually requiring surgery and correction. In this case, we have something quite like that, almost an inescapable condition of second-term presidents that occupies them wholly, mind, heart and soul. The pattern is almost predictable. The outcomes are uncertain, like right now for Obama, as he is just in his first year of his last four years of presidency.

Let’s sketch out the canvas. First, the question any day of the last few weeks is: “where is my president?” Is he in Africa, in Europe for a stopover, in an Asian summit, California summit, or back home in a not so secure White House? It depends on which day you may ask the question. The answer is anywhere or somewhere in the world. Yes, part of the second term is making sure to get in as much time on Air Force One as possible. Presidents look good if they are reaching out in the world. Soon he will have to give this up!

But some of this is educating the children and those accompanying the President. Obama’s daughters are at prime age to be exposed to the world. Clearly, Barack and Michelle want their daughters to experience Africa, the place of their heritage, before it is too late and Air Force One is no longer theirs. Everyone wants to educate their children, of course.

But then there is the legacy matter. How will history judge this President? Better hurry up! Only three years and counting to pull off some world-changing miracles. Here is the scorecard facing Obama every morning in his mirror as he looks at himself: Roosevelt ended and “won” the Second World War and ushered in the first legislation to protect U.S. citizens from poverty. Eisenhower “won the Korean truce” and brought stability to the nation. Johnson followed suit with programs of the Great Society. Nixon finished the war in Vietnam and opened up China. Reagan ended the Cold War and changed the game. Clinton ushered in the great era of the American economic boom and the lifestyle for the nation of comfort and secure economy. Bush deposed some dictators, fought the terror war and got grey hair faster than normal. Now Obama. His legacy so far is that he has led the effort to guarantee medical care for the whole nation. He is awaiting the signals, analyzing every minute, and trying furiously to pick his legacy in global affairs. It may pick him.

Some global challenges seem to have long historical scenarios that span far more than eight years. These cannot be solved in a single eight-year presidency: the challenge of world terror; denuclearization; climate problems; world hunger; the cure to cancer; and a permanent solution in the Middle East. To pick one of these challenges and solve it in three remaining years is nearly impossible. These are for future presidents and the world together to solve.

So, what’s left? Iran? Egypt and the finishing of the so-called “Arab Spring”? North Korea and a permanent denuclearization for Northeast Asia? Now that is a vision. Some have devoted their life to this one. Obama has yet to make his real mark of history with North Korea. He has been invited to a phone-call by the leader, but has not yet taken up the offer. He is challenged for a second Nobel Prize by Dennis Rodman, whose agenda is far from over for his legacy. Laugh you may at “basketball diplomacy”, but stranger things have happened!

The criticism of Obama that he takes too much family time, or is travelling too much is not really fair. When you are a CEO, let alone the CEO of a country like America, you are thinking of these issues virtually all the time, all waking hours and probably in dreams as well. Multi-tasking becomes multiple thought processes, multiple mentalities, multiple personalities. But destiny plays a role. Chance, change and circumstance often govern what happens.

In my Organizational Behavior courses over the years, I have taught students from many countries to look at an organization, and life as well, as an iceberg. Most of what we see is the tip; the real clues to the essence are below the surface. What deeply explains why an organization is the way it is becomes a small cluster of hidden truths and facts, accessible, but not readily apparent. In some rare cases, there is a diamond in the core of the iceberg. When this happens, we seem to have found one thing about the organization and often the leader, which explains almost everything. It points to destiny, and may be the greatest hint of the legacy to follow. There will be a legacy, that much we do know. And it must be something good for the whole world.

Reagan’s diamond was his love of his wife Nancy and country and that he allowed her to chart some of the course to follow. Clinton’s diamond is wrapped up in his difficult youth and hard life struggle. What is Obama’s diamond? For almost every leader or person, for that matter, there is a central facet of existence which explains almost everything. As I look at Obama, I see a rescuer. I believe that will be the substance of his legacy. Who will he rescue and when? It is right before our eyes. Someday we will see it. Now it is too hard to tell. It will emerge in the next two years so he can finish with a flourish. Buckle your seat belts.

Michael L. McManus is founder and president emeritus of the California International Business University (CIBU) in San Diego, Calif., and presently a guest professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. He welcomes comment at mcmismism@aol.com.