'Enter the Dragon'

By John Burton

Last week, China and Russia jointly warned against any unilateral foreign military intervention in North Korea over its recent nuclear test in a statement clearly aimed at the United States. The two countries said that any action against North Korea had to be approved by the United Nations Security Council, where China and Russia have veto powers, although there is little indication that the U.S. is contemplating such an action.

But an issue that is seldom discussed is what would be the response of the U.S. and South Korea if China was forced to unilaterally deploy its troops into North Korea to prevent or contain a humanitarian crisis in response to the sudden collapse of the Pyongyang government. Would this lead to a Sino-American military confrontation or could any potential conflict be resolved peacefully through the United Nations?

Since the 1990s, the U.S. and South Korea have been preparing contingency plans, known as OPLAN 5029, for dealing with “sudden change” in North Korea. Although few details are publicly known, OPLAN 5029 calls for U.S. and South Korean military forces entering North Korea to secure nuclear and military facilities and provide humanitarian assistance under what is known in Washington as the responsibility to protect (R2P) concept.

There are several obvious difficulties in carrying out OPLAN 5029, however. One is that the rapid deployment of U.S. and South Korean forces large enough to secure order might be hampered by the presence of the heavily fortified DMZ. Another is the likely hostile reaction of the North Korean population to presence of soldiers from the U.S., a country that has been demonized in the North for more than 60 years.

Meanwhile, almost nothing is known about China’s contingency plans in the event of a North Korean collapse. The only public reference to one was at the spy trial several years ago of Park Chae-seo, who was accused of leaking secrets to North Korea. Park claimed that he had been told by a senior Chinese official that Beijing was prepared to deploy troops in North Korea down to a line between Nampo and Wonsan to restore order, prevent refugees from fleeing to China and form a buffer zone against invading U.S. and South Korean forces. This was known as the “Chick Plan,” referring to the fact that China would protect North Korea in the same way a hen protects her eggs.

China may have stronger incentives than the U.S. to intervene militarily in the event of a North Korea collapse and better means to do so. Beijing fears that a breakdown of public order in North Korea would result in a massive wave of refugees fleeing across its border. To prevent this from happening, China would decide to send in the People’s Liberation Army to serve as temporary police force.

China already has large military forces stationed along the North Korean border and it could probably execute a rapid occupation, particularly given its knowledge of local conditions. Although it is uncertain what the reaction of North Koreans would be to the presence of Chinese troops on their soil, it is likely to be less hostile than that the U.S. military would face because of the long history of close Sino-North Korean ties.

China is also interested in preventing North Korea’s nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of South Korea, which it views as a potential threat based on the belief Seoul might harbor resentments against Beijing for its long-term support of Pyongyang.

The competing plans of China and the U.S. to deal with a North Korean collapse increases the risks of misperception and miscalculation that could lead to a new Sino-U.S. confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, although both sides are aware of the dangers.

Chinese officials have reportedly told U.S. officials in private that Beijing would prefer to coordinate any intervention in North Korea with the authorization of the United Nations. But if the international community fails to act in a prompt manner, China would be forced to take unilateral action in the name of maintaining regional stability under its own version of R2P.

However, U.S. officials complain that China has failed to hold serious discussions with Washington about its contingency plans in case of North Korea’s implosion, perhaps because Beijing wants to avoid offending Pyongyang leaders or as a result of suspicions about U.S. intentions. The U.S. would like China to share information on the capability of its military units that might enter North Korea and any intelligence it has on the location of North Korean nuclear weapons.

Although both the U.S. and China recognize that they have a compelling shared interest in managing potential instability in North Korea, the current tensions between Washington and Beijing are preventing them from cooperating and thus creating a combustible situation.

John Burton, a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is now a Seoul-based independent journalist and media consultant. He can be reached at johnburtonft@yahoo.com.