By Shim Jae-yun
People seem rejuvenated after Chuseok (Korean thanksgiving), having shared loving times with their families and relatives. Restless presidential candidates were busy wooing voter support during the traditional holiday, dropping in at charity and public service organizations.
They each stepped up campaign efforts given Chuseok is a crucial period with a far-reaching impact in the lead up to the presidential election.
In 2007, Chuseok saw no such heated debate as then-ruling party standard bearer Lee Myung-bak led the race as the main opposition party had yet to come up with a candidate. Lee continued to solidify his advantage and eventually won the 17th presidential poll.
Late former President Kim Dae-jung managed to clinch the 15th presidency, riding on his popularity shown in various surveys after the Chuseok season.
But the situation was very different in 2002, which was similar to the current one in many respects. What affected most people was the emergence of a decisive factor ― the envisioned single candidate from Chung Mong-joon and Roh Moo-hyun. Lee Hoi-chang, presidential candidate of the then ruling Grand National Party (now Saenuri Party) was neck-and-neck in opinion polls with Chung.
Business tycoon-turned politician Chung, then FIFA vice president, earned popularity amid the lingering public frenzy over the 2002 Korea-Japan World Cup. Roh lagged far behind them on about a 20 percent support rating.
The gap between Lee and Chung narrowed during the post-Chuseok period, due mainly to the so-called convention effect for Chung, who declared his presidential bid just ahead of the holiday. In hypothetical two-way races, Lee outpaced Roh by 8.8 percent while Chung beat Lee, as he received a boost by the nation advancing to the semifinals of the quadrennial football tournament.
Despite having remained as the underdog during the primary and even the main race, it was Roh who snatched the nation’s top job after defeating Chung and Lee consecutively.
Many lawmakers concur that most people they met during this Chuseok period expect a two-way race between Park Geun-hye and a single opposition candidate, whether it be Moon Jae-in of the opposition Democratic United Party or independent Ahn Cheol-soo.
Like his life-time boss, the former President Roh, Moon is now trailing his two rivals. One of his strong points is that he is supported by the apparatus and members of the first opposition party as was Roh. Given this, it is highly possible that Moon will emerge as the final opposition candidate ahead of Ahn, who is suffering from a series of attacks on alleged involvement in unethical behavior.
Park, for her part, is equipped with a solid support base among those in their 50s and older and in Gyeongsang Province. She also enjoys clandestine support from conservative media outlets, including the nation’s three major newspapers. They need assistance from the next government in their bids to push ahead with their cable TV channels. They have been suffering from soaring deficits after winning broadcasting licenses from the incumbent government.
Against this backdrop, they have been currying favor with the ruling party candidate, who had been leading the presidential race, due to financial problems in addition to an ideological indent.
However, Park is no longer leading the race. According to a poll conducted by Hankook Ilbo, a sister paper of The Korea Times, Park lost in hypothetical two-way races with only 43.7 percent and 41.1 percent support rates compared with Moon’s 47.0 percent and Ahn’s 49.7 percent, respectively.
Voters’ minds in Busan and its vicinity of South Gyeongsang Province with a population of more than 8 million will likely be a major factor. The region has traditional been the turf of ruling party candidates. But the situation has changed. For one thing, both Moon and Ahn hail from the area. Former South Gyeongsang Province governor Kim Doo-kwan also belongs to the opposition party. Therefore a single opposition figure would likely win over Park. What matters is will the single candidate be Moon or Ahn?