By Heo Mane
In a strange move, Pyongyang abruptly announced that it would launch a satellite in mid-April. The official announcement came just 16 days after the Kim Jung-un regime agreed to temporarily suspend its uranium enrichment at its main reactor complex in Yongbyon, and added a moratorium on nuclear and missile tests.
The North said the launch was aimed to commemorate the anniversary of the birth of its late founder Kim Il-sung. The regime will use a Unha-3 rocket to put a Kwangmyonsong-3 satellite into orbit between April 12 and 16. It is widely acknowledged that though the reclusive regime claims this launch is of a satellite, many experts state it is a test of a long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
It is estimated that the ICBM to be launched will be able to target the mainland of the United States. From a technological point of view, if successful, it could then launch a nuclear attack on America. It now appears that North Korea has made remarkable progress in missile technology since the 1998 test of a long-range missile. The last launch was conducted in 2009.
The (North) Korean Committee for Space Technology said that the country has chosen a safe flight route, not to damage space and the environment. It seems that the regime cares about not affecting neighboring states, eventually ensuring favorable international opinion on the launch. The regime declared it will abide by international rules and customs concerning the peaceful launch of satellite and the transparency of its firing process.
However, the Pyongyang regime already violated two important international agreements. The United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1718 in 2006, and a second, Resolution 1874 in 2009, which were aimed at banning any launch using ballistic missile technology. These resolutions expressed that the ballistic missile launch would be a highly provocative action threatening peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Today, the regime also violated its latest Beijing promise. Viewed from past behavior, a nuclear test is most likely to follow sooner or later.
What appears to be the core aims behind the scrapping of the shortest gentlemen’s promise? First and foremost, the scrapping aims to celebrate the centennial of the late founding father Kim Il-sung’s birth, as officially announced. This is predominantly a symbolic show of power.
Second, the reclusive country wishes to continue its “military first” policy. This is a second-powerful symbol for the Pyongyang regime as this year is a year to achieve its policy goals. The successful launch of a long-range missile would be a most valuable tool.
Third, it is closely linked to the intention of fostering increased bargaining power with Washington; in particular to draw the largest amount of economic and nutritional assistance from the U.S. The regime seems to be worried about how it can prevent North Koreans from fleeing the so-called “juche” (self-reliance) country.
Fourth, it seems likely that the missile test will clearly overwhelm South Korea in terms of military capability, especially in the missile race. Successful missile operations in modern times decide victory or defeat in war.
Fifth, this adventurous event is designed, it is thought, as a tactic to influence the general and presidential elections in South Korea, with a view to supporting leftwing political parties by demonstrating a superior military might. Viewed from this, it may be a plot to forge an environment favorable to some progressive parties.
Last but not least, the launch is considered a dramatic event to dilute the effects of the Nuclear Security Summit to be hosted by South Korea next week. This move is also designed to further delay the long-stalled six-party talks. At this juncture, China should commit itself to reopening the talks as early as possible, as well as offering speedy mediation to prod the North to scrap the plan.
I think the adventure will rather further isolate North Korea than help it come back to international society as an active member. Society still strongly supports the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the Missile Technology Control Regime, and the U.S. and Russia have been working together to scale back weapons of mass destruction with a firm will to maintain world peace and security.
The U.N. must adopt, of course, a much stronger resolution banning further tests of ballistic missiles if Pyongyang carries them out. With regard to this primary goal, the Nuclear Security Summit of leaders of 53 states plus the representatives of four international organizations should place overwhelming pressure on the North to abandon WMDs.
Heo Mane is president of the Korea-EU Forum. Contact him at mane398@naver.com.