By Yim Sung-joon
The dawn of 2012 has brought the passing of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il as well as early glimpses into the uncertainty that will be surrounding the Korean Peninsula in the coming years.
The current instability is not unlike that of 10 years earlier, when regional unrest rose rapidly prior to the South Korean presidential election. At that time, the U.S. stopped providing heavy fuel oil to North Korea, alleging that it had violated the Geneva Agreed Framework by secretly pursuing its uranium enrichment program.
North Korea responded by expelling inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and resumed operating its nuclear facilities. In the meantime, inter-Korean relations were severely strained by the naval battle in the West Sea between the North and the South.
On the political front, Kim Jong-il suddenly cut off talks with the South after observing the unexpectedly high election fever heating up in the nation, and sat back and waited for the election results.
After Roh Moo-hyun, a progressive politician, was declared victorious, Kim insulted the special envoy of then-outgoing president Kim Dae-jung in Pyongyang by refusing to honor a prescheduled meeting in the hope that he would be able to strike a better deal with the incoming government in Seoul.
Inter-Korean dialogue has stalled since the 2008 inauguration of the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration. And the death of Kim Jong-il is likely to further frustrate the South’s efforts to mend ties with the North.
At the moment, the political scene in the South is so fluid that it is difficult to predict which party will prevail in both the April general elections and the presidential election in December.
As Pyongyang needs time to establish the Kim Jong-un era, it may choose to wait for the election results or hatch a plot to influence Seoul politics rather than engaging in official talks.
In this respect, it is possible that the North might launch small-scale provocations (e.g., a short naval battle) as it has in the past to secure an edge in its security talks with the South.
In light of this, the role of China will be more important than ever before in resolving the growing uncertainties facing the peninsula. In October, China will convene its Communist Party Convention and launch a new government led by Xi Jinping, the same person who pledged full support to the North Korean regime at the 60th anniversary of China’s entry into the Korean War.
Should China strengthen its ties with the North, it may be difficult to dissuade them from engaging in military adventurism.
The North’s other ally Russia has recently been undergoing political upheaval over Putin’s bid for the 2012 presidential election. Therefore, it may not be actively intervening in matters arising on the peninsula.
As for the South’s allies, the role of the U.S. may be limited as well. It does not want the security situation on the peninsula to worsen, so it could attempt to hold talks with the North over a few limited issues such as food aid at an appropriate time.
However, this year’s presidential campaign process has already begun, and the Obama administration is expected to devote its efforts to speed up the nation’s economic recovery (rather than address foreign policy issues) to increase its standing in the eyes of the American public and improve its chances for re-election.
As for Japan, Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda assumed the office only last year, and he has not yet firmly settled into power. Thus, the possibility remains that the current government could be dissolved and followed by a general election. In addition, whereas the former Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio placed some weight on Asia-related affairs, Noda is focused on negotiations for a Trans-Pacific Partnership (similar to a free trade agreement) with the U.S., rather than on North Korean issues.
In consideration, stability on the peninsula will be heavily influenced by North Korea and China relations. The South Korean government has no official channel to Pyongyang and may face serious difficulty in maintaining the current regional situation.
Thus, there is an urgent need for Seoul to carefully analyze the political and security landscape and devise and execute sustainable diplomatic objectives in order to prevent any potential crisis on the peninsula.
The writer is a distinguished professor at the Graduate School of International Area Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. A career diplomat, Yim is also senior advisor for Lee International IP & Law Group. Reach him at yimsungjoon@gmail.com.