North Korea is predictable society

By Lee Chang-sup

Following the death of Kim Jong-il, North Korea writers have let their imaginations run wild. Many of them have portrayed the North as the world’s most unpredictable society. This assumption may be wrong. Ironically and arguably, North Korea is a predictable society.

Many examples dispute the myth that the North is an unpredictable, puzzling and mysterious country.

If outsiders view North Korea as an extension of the Joseon Kingdom, the dynastic succession is a rule. Even after the demise of the 500-year Joseon Kingdom in 1910, North Korea still adheres to a dynastic system. Kim Jong-il had once floated the idea of converting the North into a monarchy. Even without this conversion, North Korea is already a hybrid form of monarchy.

Following the deaths of his grandfather and father, Kim Jong-un became the ruler, perhaps the youngest national leader in the world. In the Joseon dynasty, even a teenager became king when his father died prematurely. Blood is the prime criteria for a royal family.

Confucianism underpins the North Korean system. In the Confucian society, obedience to the king was unchallengeable. Respect for elders was emphasized. Under the self-reliance (juche) ideology tinged with Confucianism, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il suppressed the North Koreans. A wife should not be in public and should be obedient to a husband. The legacy will likely continue under Kim Jong-un.

Like the Joseon Kingdom, North Korea has been brutal and uncompromising to any rebellious figures challenging the Kim dynasty.

Even the dictatorial and brutal leader Kim Jong-il showed his respect for the elders. He ruled from behind the scene for three years after the death of his father in 1994. In orthodox Confucian ethics, a three-year mourning period was the norm for the eldest son. During his summit with President Kim Dae-jung in 2000, the late Kim took pains to show respect to the visiting South Korean president.

Many scholars view the North as practicing Confucian communism, a unique system. Jong-un will strengthen the Kim family cult and the remodeling work of North Koreans. According to Ralph Hassig, an American expert on North Korea, the Kimist ideology borrowed heavily from Confucianism, Stalinism and Maoism. It stresses the value of the family as a model for society, with the leader as the father figure and its citizen-family members having their own role to play.

North Korea is a nation where pride has the highest priority. When outsiders hurt their pride, they behave in a hysteric and knee-jerking way.

Predictably, the North will never give up nuclear weapons under any circumstances. This is a dilemma for South Korea, the United States and other countries. Since 1994 when the North signed an Agreed Framework with the United States, North Korea deceived Washington and South Korea. It conducted two nuclear tests.

North Korea is also predictable in the fact that the United States is its most dreaded country. Its hysteric reaction to the joint Korea-U.S. military drills, although defensive in nature, indicates how North Korea is afraid of the United States. Kim Jong-il had predictably been successful in tightening his grip on power by abusing the United States as Pyongyang’s bogus enemy. Recurring propaganda of possible U.S. attacks was instrumental in creating a sense of horror and false unity among North Koreans. The North’s another predictable preoccupation is its impatience to negotiate with the United States.

The North is probably more predictable than the South. There, the leader decides everything whether it is right or wrong. In South Korea and other countries, leaders have limits as their policies need public filtering.

Outsiders viewed the late Kim as an unpredictable ruler. This myth came from his strategy that if he wraps himself in mystery, the enemies will be filled with uncertainty. Kim Jong-il was predictable for his double-thinking and double-doing. His brinkmanship tactic was a trade mark of North Korea.

An immediate collapse of North Korea appears to be a fantasy as it has erected a safety net of censorship and tight media control.

North Korea has taken the predictable path of an-eye-for-an-eye tactics. The more hard-line policy Seoul has adopted, the extra hard-line reaction it took. U.N. sanctions and international pressures have done little in changing the North although their corrosive effects have been pervasive.

The United States and South Korea had mapped out contingency plans on the assumption of Kim Jong-il’s death. The third-generation succession was under way in a seemingly smooth progression, however. Kim Jong-un will likely continue to run the country in accordance with the will of his father.

People may say North Korea is unpredictable because it does not admit when it commits provocations. Although outsiders do not know when it provokes, the North is predictable because it has committed these acts when it has perceived external threat or pressures.

Seoul’s policymakers have often failed to chart an effective North Korea policy as they want to hear what they are pleased to hear, not what the North truly is.

Many anti-North Korean associations and media in the South often portray the isolated, extreme North Korean episodes as trends pointing to what will happen in the North. Their low-grade information failed to tell the direction of the North.

Seoul’s policymakers, including the next president, need to make a correct, ideology-free assessment of North Korean behavior before they chart North Korea policy.

Lee Chang-sup is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times. His email address is editorial@koreatimes.co.kr.