By Park Tae-woo
The North Korean puzzle has become more difficult to solve after the death of Kim Jong-il. I really wonder if Kim’s passing is such sad news to 23 million North Koreans who have been deprived of their basic rights even though they are crying over the dead body.
Brutal oppression and starvation have been the bad symbol of the Stalinist regime led by one of the most infamous dictators in world history.
Probably China could be one of the countries to feel sad over the death of this dictator for the reason that stability in North Korea may be weakened, thus causing some disorder unfavorable for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.
Core members in the hierarchy of the North Korean Workers’ Party and the military are possibly vulnerable to future risks because the power rigidity they have enjoyed could be shaken if an uncontrollable situation happens in the North.
On the contrary, North Koreans do not need to feel so sad in that the era of genuine democracy for ordinary people there could come earlier than expected. Indoctrination and authoritarian control have made their psychological condition addicted to the wrong idea of juche (self-reliance) ideology, almost to a religious level. The death of the dictator could open a new era for the people there in a more positive direction.
What’s crucial at this juncture is how to change the North Korean regime into a more transparent and democratic one that adopts reforms and opens to the outside world, which will reduce the potential for security instability there.
In this perilous moment that requires close coordination among the four major powers surrounding the peninsula, South Korea should be the main player with full diplomatic leverage to create a peaceful mood in the region.
With a nuclear weapons arsenal and an erratic leadership in North Korea, security is the most crucial agenda for future South Korean politics, definitely replacing the already existing economic and welfare agenda. Given the North's hostile attitude toward the South, the coming general and presidential elections next year will be heavily influenced by security uncertainties and the problem of the North’s hereditary power succession.
The role of the U.S. has also become more important in managing the security agenda in Northeast Asia as China holds many important cards as far as North Korean politics are concerned. This means that the South Korea-U.S. alliance should be the axis of politics in the region.
Even though Beijing has more leverage on Pyongyang, Washington should not be hesitant to meddle in the crucial transition politics to the best degree possible, either diplomatically or politically in close consultation with Seoul.
Quite beyond the security interests of China, Washington and Seoul should look for a more promising chance for a more genuine democratic regime in Pyongyang.
Holding more active dialogue with Beijing, Washington and Seoul should raise the chance for better living conditions in North Korea with universal democratic practices. In this, Seoul should be the major player.
Of course, it is quite uncertain whether North Korea will meet the expectations of the international community or fall back into the old paradigm of the Cold War. The building-up of a nuclear state and personality cult in the past still cast a dark shadow over the future course of the Stalinist state. South Korea and the U.S. should make combined efforts to give poverty-stricken North Koreans a glimpse of hope for a better future.
Active diplomacy to persuade Beijing to transform North Korea from a rigid socialist country into a Chinese-style market economy will be a very crucial task for future stability on the peninsula. At the same time, Seoul and Washington should be on full alert for all possibilities, further consolidating their bilateral alliance.
Prof. Park Tae-woo is a researcher at the Institute of Sustainable Development in Korea University. He is also president of the Institute of Blue Politics and Economy. He has taught international issues at the division of international studies in Korea University and Kyung Hee University. He has also lectured Korean politics in National Chengchi University in Republic of China as a visiting professor and visiting scholar. He could be reached at t517@naver.com.