By Lee Byong-chul
Someone said to Confucius, “Why do you not take part in government?” The master said, “Oh! Simply by being a good son and friendly to his brothers a man can exert an influence upon government.” In so doing a man is, in fact, taking part in government. How can there be any question of his having actively take part in government?” (Confucius, The Analects)
South Korea is turning into a land for liberal activists. Voters have turned a skeptical eye toward the conservative Lee Myung-bak government’s policies across the nation. The selection of Park Won-soon on Oct. 26 as the new mayor of Seoul has eventually shortened the lead time to entice Ahn Cheol-soo, a reformist professor at Seoul National University with no political affiliation, to climb aboard the ship as the most formidable potential adversary of the ruling Grand National Party (GNP).
Recent polls reveal that the highly popular anti-computer virus entrepreneur-turned-professor is ultimately the only rival who could be able to defeat Park Geun-hye, the GNP’s favorite for the 2012 presidential election. Apparently, Ahn is a godsend for opposition parties that have failed to find a “competitive contender” in recent months, while breathing new life into the opposition party’s hopes for presidential power a year from now.
A large number of people do not know exactly why Ahn decided not to run for mayor after an hour-long conversation with Park Won-soon, even though polls showed Ahn as a candidate ahead of the activist not to mention the GNP contender. With Ahn’s withdrawal from the race, many political analysts here anticipated that Park’s contest was already over. Helped along by Ahn who encouraged young people to vote for the liberal candidate, Park won the mayoral race against the GNP candidate.
While being called a dirty bomb rolled into the Cheong Wa Dae bunker by angry citizens, the election results delivered a blow to Park Geun-hye, a daughter of assassinated President Park Chung-hee, essentially because she is often called the “queen of elections.” It made the race a mini-referendum on her own prospects by putting aside her decision to stand aloof from party politics and to get into the ring by campaigning for the GNP candidate.
The GNP candidate’s defeat clearly demonstrated that incongruities and frustrations were piling up for the government and the ruling party. It’s unclear whether the victory of Park Won-soon will usher in a better appearance of government in South Korea, but Ahn knows how to talk to his listeners. Over the last several months, the dean of Seoul National University Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology has performed well as a “national mentor” or a “serious presidential candidate” being more often than not mentioned at the dinner table.
With a background in medical college and the IT industry, professor Ahn is a latecomer to politics who is adept at reading the undercurrents of frustrated voters. Inevitably, Ahn’s eyes will likely drift to the presidential election in December 2012. It is not uncommon for university professors to get involved in politics, where most of them will helplessly vanish into a cloud of political obfuscation over the long run.
Now that the presidential election is usually about the economy (including jobs) and corruption, the lousy politics combined with the faltering economy are the perfect ingredients to secure Ahn an alternative independent candidacy and ultimately occupy Cheong Wa Dae. In four years, Koreans are again hungry for a morally good leader. It is spring for Ahn and his clean image, not winter.
A high sense of integrity alone can’t win the presidency, of course. But everyone is talking about corrupt and incompetent leadership, for obvious reasons. President Lee Myung-bak and his loyalists had no trouble ignoring their professed values and turning a blind eye to cronyism and numerous scandals. The broken government has no leverage to silence the angry voters.
In particular, young people’s wrath is a stern warning that they could sink the mindless GNP in the elections. And going to a two-person contest in the 2012 presidential election is the unified opposition party’s preferred way to win the race ― a possibility that could reshape the edge for Ahn, only if the Wharton School graduate is picked as the sole candidate of an opposition coalition.
Ahn is one of the very few people who understand the expansion of liberal rhetoric, although it’s not yet confirmed whether as a future-guaranteed medical student, he was a strong advocate of democratization in the 1980s. While having name-recognition across the nation, he might decide not to enter the race. Instead Ahn who has already identified himself as an anti-GNP supporter may play a decisive role in campaigning for the unified opposition party’s candidate as he did for the new mayor.
Whatever he chooses, Ahn’s political pull could create a significant effect on the GNP’s fate. At the same time, Park Geun-hye’s candidacy looks very similar to that of Arizona Sen. John McCain who went from a runway lead to collapse in December of 2008. More twists and turns lie ahead. But in 2012, we may see the GNP collapse earlier than North Korea.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Institute for Peace and Cooperation. Contact him at bcleebc@gmail.com.