By Lee Sun-ho
Until the beginning of the 21st century, it was rather uncommon to hear about acronyms that represented groups of countries, except for ABCDE (Argentine, Brazil, Chile, Dominican Republic and Ecuador in Latin America) just in alphabetical order.
``BRICs,” also known as the ``Big Four,” is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, coined in a 2001 Goldman Sachs report. The four countries, combined, account for more than a quarter of the world’s land area and more than 40 percent of the world’s population.
Each of the BRIC countries was predicted to become one of the six largest economic powers by surpassing traditional economic powers, including Germany, England, France and Italy, by 2050. There is no argument that their growth potential is important and that their political impact is equally rising as more time goes by.
In 2010, the Business Insider had some interesting insight on going beyond the BRICs to the ``MAVINS” _ six surging countries, namely, Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa. The combined economies of the MAVINS could easily equal 60 percent of America’s current economy by as early as 2020, over 200 percent by 2050, and then continue robustly thereafter.
The six nations are uniquely positioned to benefit from global economic growth via their relative advantages in natural resources as well as situated to offer enormous opportunities for expanding niche markets.
While the BRICs still steal the hype and limelight, the MAVINS are less appreciated yet exhibit enormous potential.
Also in 2010 ``PIIGS,” an acronym was used to refer to the five eurozone nations, which were considered the most vulnerable to financial crisis: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. Since the five nations use the euro as their currency, they could not employ an independent monetary policy to conduct economic reform until they were saved by euro stabilization packages.
In a repeat feat, Goldman Sachs recently designated a new and interesting grouping acronym with MIKT, denoting Mexico, Indonesia, Korea and Turkey, countries which possess the engine of growth potential without relying too much on G7 nations.
Both Mexico and Indonesia, also included in the MAVINS, are likely to show faster growth, better demographics and declining corruption, more fitting for the super-charged image that the group has come to represent.
According to a paper published in 2006, Korea could be a country comparable to one of the BRICs, but was excluded initially, as the nation was considered already developed and had joined the OECD.
Last year, Korea became the ninth largest trading power in the global village grossing $893.1 billion and recording $41.7 billion in trade surplus. But it remains an uncertain variable whether the Korean Peninsula will remain divided between the South and the North and exposed to constant security issues stemming from military hostility, or become a reunited country.
Turkey has the world’s 15th largest GDP, and is a founding member of the OECD and G20 economies. Turkey has gradually opened up its markets through economic reforms, reducing government control on foreign trade and investment, and privatizing state enterprises.
Many of the existing economic powers are now in a state of continuous decline due to a shrinking work force and swelling retirees, leading to demographic disadvantages. By 2050 they will be replaced by fast-rising emerging countries primed for robust growth thanks mainly to their abundant working-age populations.
It is quite unpredictable which of these acronyms will have the most lasting relevance in this rapidly-changing global economic power map. Time will show if any or all of them are just a fleeting coinage, depending on the countries’ performances.
The writer is an outside director of KunWha Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. in Seoul. He can be reached at kexim2@unitel.co.kr.