Improving Cross-Straight Ties

By Frank Ching

Taiwan and mainland China signed three agreements in Nanjing on Sunday, the third time agreements since President Ma Ying-jeou assumed office less than a year ago. The improvement in the cross-straight relations has been dramatic.

The latest agreements double the number of weekly flights between the two sides and turn them from chartered into scheduled flights. They also include a 12-point agreement on financial services and an accord on legal cooperation, including the extradition of criminal suspects.

The two sides will meet again in the second half of this year, this time in Taiwan. At that time, they will discuss such issues as agriculture and fishing.

The steady improvement in relations over the past year marks a dramatic change from the presidency of Chen Shui-bian, when Taiwan was constantly making provocative moves to underline its independence from China.

The new president has declared a policy of ``three no's'' during his administration. That is, there will be no declaration of independence, no unification with the mainland, and no use of force.

Reassured that Taiwan will not move toward de jure independence, Beijing has been steadily cementing ties with the island, seeking to help alleviate the economic downturn by encouraging tourists to travel across the strait and signing agreements on other economic issues.

There is a tacit understanding that the two sides will discuss easier-to-resolve economic issues before moving on to tackle knotty political problems.

But even where economic issues are concerned, the going is not easy for the Ma administration. Every move is scrutinized by the opposition, the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, and charges of selling out are heard virtually every day.

The next hurdle in Taiwan-Mainland ties will come well before the next round of talks. Next month, the World Health Assembly, the highest decision-making body of the World Health Organization (WHO), will meet in Geneva and Taiwan will again seek to gain observer status.

Hitherto, Beijing has frustrated all of Taiwan's attempts, even though observers do not have to be sovereign states. But President Hu Jintao has indicated China's understanding for more international space and has said that the first issue to be tackled is Taiwan's role in the WHO.

If Taiwan fails to gain observer status this time, the Ma administration will be dealt a devastating blow, since within Taiwan this will be portrayed as the total failure of Ma's policy of friendship with China.

So keen is Taipei to gain the status that its foreign ministry has just issued a position paper in four languages to explain the importance of such a development.

In January, Taiwan was included in the International Health Regulations, but the position paper explains that this is not enough because the IHR mechanism is limited to the monitoring and control of infectious diseases.

On its part, Beijing is apprehensive that any concessions made to Ma may be enjoyed by Taiwan's political opposition whenever the DPP gains power again.

Hence, Beijing may try to create a mechanism under which Taiwan will not gain a permanent status, but rather one that has to be reconfirmed each year.

Thus, it is possible that Taiwan will receive an invitation from the World Health Assembly to participate this year, but the invitation will only be for 2009.

Under such circumstances, should Taiwan accept? Well, it will be a step forward and Taiwan will have little choice but to accept, even though it may leave a bad taste in the mouth.

And the opposition will certainly make much of China's continued attempt to keep Taiwan on a short leash ― one that it can pull back at any time.

Although both the mainland and Taiwan are now nurturing the relationship by taking small but regular steps forward in less sensitive areas, they have to think about a longer term framework for their relationship. That, both sides seem to agree, is a peace agreement.

But the exact terms of a peace agreement acceptable to both sides are elusive. Beijing has made it clear that its ultimate goal is unification using the ``one country, two systems'' formula.

But that formula is not acceptable to Taiwan, especially when it sees how that formula is being applied in Hong Kong.

Mao Zedong said China could wait a hundred years before unification. What is needed now is a Chinese leader who has the courage to accept that unification as Beijing envisages it may not happen even in a hundred years.

And, as long as Taiwan is administered by Chinese rather than foreigners, should it really matter?

Frank Ching is a journalist and commentator in Hong Kong. He can be reached at frank.ching@gmail.com.