By Ik-whan G. Kwon
North Korea, in defiance of international warnings, fired a long-rage missile on April 5. World leaders are now scrambling to take the next step.
The behavior is fairly predictable. It knew any Western superpower cannot do anything, because Pyongyang knows the game plan better than anyone.
The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718 in 2006 has done almost nothing to North Korea. In fact, it did the regime a great favor by getting attention from the United States, which poured aid, both economic and in the form of energy.
When time for verification came, North Korea balked at the six-party talks for denuclearization.
The regime balked since it would deprive it of the last card that it can play in missile diplomacy. In the meantime, it built its most developed long-range missile.
Experts seem to be in agreement that not much can be expected from the U.N. Security Council as long as China does not play the game, and unfortunately China will not. Why should it? China is benefiting from this missile diplomacy as much as North Korea.
China once again demonstrates to the world how important she is in this particular event. North Korea knows how to dance with China, since the world's last Stalinist country is aware that Beijing needs it as much as it needs Beijing.
Will the six-party talks continue? They will, because they provide a stage for North Korea to dance and demand rewards for its bad behavior.
I am fairly certain that the West will give in to the North's demands as it has done so many times in the past. One should not be surprised if the North fires several more short-range missiles to hammer home its point.
Does the West have any cards to play? Not many. It is ironic to see more nerve-rattling reactions around the world than in South Korea. People here react much calmer as they know the North's behavior better than anyone.
They consider the North as a crying baby, sobbing until it gets attention from its parents.
The reaction from North Korea toward the current South Korean government was and is fairly predictable. The present administration proclaimed in 2008 that the conditions for continuous economic aid unless and until the North becomes serious about dismantling its nuclear program.
The North's reaction has been violent, but predictable again. A tourist was shot to death in 2008 at the Mt. Guemgang resort by a North Korean soldier, leading to the closure of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex for a few days. It recently detained and threatened to put on trial two American female journalists, and also apprehended one South Korean employee working at the inter-Korean industrial park for unfriendly remarks about the North Korean government.
We should pay closer attention after the pro-North Korean newspaper, Choson Sinbo in Tokyo, lately made it clear that North Korean rocket technology could be used for economic as well as military purposes by exporting it to other countries.
North Korea will come to an acceptable international diplomatic norm as soon as it realizes missile diplomacy does not work.
Military experts estimate that North Korea spent about $500 million on this missile program and the source of funds was from the illegal trade of weapons to countries such as Iran, Pakistan and Syria.
When the sources of such funds dry up, the North may finally realize that there are no more partners to dance with. Then and only then will international diplomacy replace missile diplomacy for North Korea.
It is the United Nations' task, therefore, to ensure that no countries deal with North Korea on weapons systems, and to strengthen such rules and regulations around the globe as we once did on Libya in the 1980s after the Pan Am bombing.
One cannot blame the South Korean government, therefore, for considering joining the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI).
Although humanitarian aid for North Korea should be continued uninterrupted, the world should be much more belligerent to choke off fund sources which can be channeled into the development of weapons of mass destruction while starving its own people on a massive scale.
Ik-whan G. Kwon, Ph.D., is a professor of decision sciences and director of the Center for Supply Chain Management Studies, St. Louis University. He is currently in Seoul, Korea, as a Fulbright specialist and visiting professor of supply chain management at KDI School of Public Policy and Management. He can be reached at kwoni@slu.edu.