Prospects for Peace in Uganda

Hany Besada

By Hany Besada and Vadim Ermakov

Recently, Joachim Chissano, former Mozambican President and the U.N.'s special envoy to areas affected by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency, briefed the U.N. Security Council in New York on the status of the Ugandan peace process.

The meeting focused on the increasingly bleak prospects for peace between the Ugandan government and the LRA, following Joseph Kony, the rebel group leader's refusal to sign a final peace agreement in April.

This follows closely on the heels of a failed attempt by the rebel movement to have the warrants of arrest, issued against him and his top commanders by the International Criminal Court (ICC), withdrawn as a

precondition for a cessation of hostilities.

The LRA rebels are said to be fighting for the establishment of a government based on the biblical Ten Commandments. They are alleged to have kidnapped thousands of women and children, forcing them to become rebel fighters or concubines.

More than one-half-million people in Uganda's Gulu and Kitgum districts have been displaced by the fighting and are living in temporary camps, protected by the army over the past two decades.

The involvement of the ICC triggered an increase in international pressure against the LRA's numerous crimes against humanity and significantly slowed down the intensity of the attacks on civilians over the past two years, while forcing Kony to resume peace negotiations.

Ugandan army spokesperson, Paddy Ankunda, reportedly said that he sees no sense in negotiations and strongly favors military action against the notorious rebel leader who, in his (Akunda's) opinion, has two options open to him, either handing himself over or being hunted down.

Joseph Kony's contempt for international mediators has already dashed hopes that he would sign the peace agreement to finally put an end to more than two decades of civil conflict, which killed tens of thousands and displaced over two million people.

Ideally, he would like to arrange a compromise. Some of his representatives and key negotiators have recently reiterated this position, stressing that the major obstacle to peace was, in fact, the ICC.

More particularly, there are many controversies surrounding the ICC's arrest warrants for LRA leaders. For instance, in Gulu, a northern district of Uganda, people question the legitimacy of the ICC's law, given a number of consequences, which resulted in the crimes of the Ugandan army, commonly known as the Ugandan Peoples Defense Force (UPDF) being overlooked and, instead, placing the blame primarily on the LRA for all the atrocities committed throughout the conflict.

At present, the international community sees Uganda as a country that is willing and able to bring perpetrators of war crimes and crimes against humanity to justice.

Human Rights Watch has recently reported that the LRA carried out at least 100 abductions since February this year, not only in Northern Uganda, but also in neighboring countries.

This has further damaged prospects of signing a peace agreement with the LRA. At present, resolving the conflict requires a truly international approach, and the U.N. and other top facilitators would need to offer alternative options to revive the peace process, other than those presently on the negotiation table.

The situation is further complicated by the Sudan's lack of co-operation with the ICC, where Khartoum has been reluctant to work with the ICC in conducting internal trials, given the precarious position it finds itself in with regard to Ahmad Harun, former Sudanese Minister of the Interior accused of war crimes, as well as the most recent indictment against President Omar al-Bashir for alleged crimes against humanity in Darfur, which left 300 000 people killed and another 2,5 million internally displaced.

Due to Sudan's lack of co-operation, the LRA rebels could easily cross the border into Southern Sudan and freely escape any pursuit from the UPDF and their allies in the region.

Critics contend that peace in Uganda does not totally depend on the LRA and on Kony's desire for the ICC to grant him immunity. Rather, the ICC has delayed the process further, given the precarious position it finds itself in.

By granting immunity to Kony, it may establish an unprecedented development in international law and, in so doing, running an ever-greater risk of discrediting its reputation.

On the other hand, the capture of Kony and his extradition to The Hague to face crimes against humanity and war crimes, risks prolonging the conflict and plunging the region into further misery by provoking his staunchly loyal fighters to continue fighting.

The situation is indeed intricate and puzzling, but difficult choices need to be made, if an end is to be made to one of Africa's longest running conflicts.

Hany Besada is senior researcher and program leader at the Center for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, Canada. He can be reached at hbesada@cigionline.org. Vadim Ermakov is at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, Germany.