Sudan Ruler Can Run, but Can’t Hide

By John J. Metzler

BENNINGTON, Vt. ― It couldn't happen to a more deserving dictator. Long overdue justice may finally be coming for Omar al-Bashir in the wake of the International Criminal Court's (ICC) charges against the Sudanese ruler for genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes stemming from the Khartoum regime's treatment of its citizens in the devastated Darfur region.

The ICC prosecutor's indictment stands as the first such legal move against a sitting head of state. Now all they have to do is catch him.

Given the ongoing horrors of Darfur where at least 300,000 have died and more than two million people have been driven from their homes, it should come as no surprise that Sudan's Islamic government is monumentally guilty of ethnic cleansing.

For five years, the world community has looked on in shock and dismay and the U.N. finally sent in a peacekeeping force ― too little, too late, to stop the violence.

ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo's report found ``reasonable grounds" for believing President Bashir bore criminal responsibility on 10 counts of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. He has allegedly ``masterminded and implemented a plan to destroy in substantial part the Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa groups, on account of their ethnicity" after they rebelled.

The prosecutor stated scathingly of Bashir, ``His motives were largely political … His alibi was a `counterinsurgency.' His intent was genocide.''

The genocide charge cites systematic and state-sanctioned extermination of specific ethnic groups; crimes against humanity include murder, rape, deportation; war crimes, entail attacks on civilians and destruction of villages. The violence is inter-Islamic.

In most cases Arab Muslims are attacking black Muslims. Moreover the government-backed Jangaweed Arab militia, used to kill and plunder regime opponents, is among the most dangerous players in the continuing conflict.

But the ICC's evidence against Bashir and similar moves last year against two of his close political cronies including the Humanitarian Affairs Minister Ahmad Harun has triggered a spate of seething nationalist rage in Sudan.

The Khartoum regime has called Moreno-Ocampo the criminal, and warned that the indictment could stall peace talks and spark chaos in Sudan.

The 9,000-strong U.N. peacekeeping force in the country has been targeted and the safety of a large humanitarian and operation effort could be jeopardized.

Bashir seized power in Sudan in a 1989 Islamic-backed military coup and has ruled Africa's largest state ever since. His regime has curried favor with radical Islamic factions but at the same time has courted a cozy commercial and political relationship with the People's Republic of China.

China remains a major importer of Sudanese oil and Beijing-backed companies are crucial to further petroleum exploration. It's estimated that the China National Petroleum Corporation has invested $16 billion in Sudan's burgeoning oil industry, while at the same time China remains a major weapons supplier despite an U.N. arms embargo.

Given his close ties with China, lubricated by a booming oil business, President Bashir can be assured of medium-term protection. Here's where he can take heart. Just recently, Beijing along with Moscow, blocked a Western-backed sanctions package on Zimbabwe for the Mugabe regime's rigged elections and suppression of dissent.

The double veto slapped a political whammy on the intended arms and travel embargo on Mugabe. Though China will speak piously about not interfering in domestic issues or sovereignty of African states, the fact remains that from Rangoon (Yangon) to Khartoum and Teheran to Harare, it's Beijing which has provided political benediction and cover for some of the world's most odious rulers.

And then there's the reach of the ICC itself. Though established a decade ago, the court is not universal ― only two of the five permanent members of the Security Council are members ― Britain and France.

China, Russia the United States and more than 80 other countries, including Sudan, are not signatories. Sudan argues the ICC in The Hague has no jurisdiction over it. Though the ICC Prosecutor may get an arrest warrant against Bashir, it would be unlikely that the Sudanese ruler would be arrested should he visit the U.N. in New York.

Though Bashir (and Mugabe for that matter) may feel immune and safe from prosecution, their luck could be running out. They should recall the case of Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic and Liberia's Charles Taylor both of whom found themselves in The Hague not as chiefs of state but as masters of a small prison cell.

John J. Metzler is a United Nations correspondent covering diplomatic and defense issues. He is author of ``Divided Dynamism: The Diplomacy of Separated Nations; Germany, Korea, China" (University Press, 2001). He can be reached at jjmcolumn@att.net.