By Tong Kim
Only a month ago, I wrote in this column that people were not excited about the presidential election because unlike in the past there was no vital national campaign issue such as democratization, and no inspiring candidates offering a vision and hope for the nation. I was wrong. The election has now turned into a fascinating suspense drama, because of unpredictability stemming from new critical variables.
Until recently it was a prudent assessment that the Grand National Party (GNP) candidate Lee Myung-bak would win the election as his robust support ratings continued to show a triple or double margin over his opponents. Now the situation has drastically changed with the emergence of two ominous challengers: Lee Hoi-chang and Kim Kyung-joon.
Running as an independent, Lee Hoi-chang, a former GNP leader who failed twice in his presidential bid, is effectively eroding the former Seoul mayor's conservative base of support. Kim, a onetime business partner of Lee Myung-bak, is threatening the viability of Lee Myung-bak's candidacy.
The whole nation is focusing on what might develop from prosecutors' investigation of the ``BBK'' fraud case, a renewed investigation that is being accelerated with Kim's extradition from the United States last Friday. The GNP candidate's involvement has long been implicated in connection with the financial scandal. But Lee Myung-bak has repeatedly and unequivocally denied any involvement in the fraud case. Sounding confident, Lee said, ``Justice and truth will prevail'' and he will be cleared of any political or legal suspicions. The charges against Lee are all political so far.
His opponents ― including Lee Hoi-chang ― are calling for a thorough investigation of Lee Myung-bak's alleged involvement. Lee Hoi-chang's campaign chief even said that the GNP candidate should consider resignation. If prosecutors prove any suspected wrong doing on Lee Myung-bak's part is true, he might be subject to indictment depending on the extent of his involvement. If indicted, Lee would lose his membership of the GNP, and technically should not be the GNP's candidate.
Whether the investigation would lead to such development is questionable, but it might bring down Lee Myung-bak's ratings in polls, undermining his chance to win. The GNP has warned that if the prosecutors leak or manipulate Kim Kyung-joon's ``groundless allegations with an intent to damage its candidate,'' it will wage a protest in the scale of ``a national rebellion.''
The GNP is concerned about the possibility that the prosecution authorities might abuse their power for political purposes. On the other hand, polls show even if Lee is proven to have been actually involved in the BBK scandal, many voters would still support the former business executive, who is still seen as the best man to build the economy.
Lee Hoi-chang jumped into the race at the last minute, probably because he still could not accept his ``unfair'' defeat five years ago and his uneasiness with Lee Myung-bak's vulnerabilities as a candidate to take back government from the liberal pro-government forces. He is over 70 years old and this certainly is his last chance.
After Lee Myung-bak became the GNP nominee, there was factional feuding within the party, and that led to prodding and cajoling to draft Lee Hoi-chang. Lee Myung-bak, fairly or unfairly, is blamed for his lack of political leadership. To the GNP Lee Hoi-chang is a spoiler and a splitter who may cause an electoral defeat.
On the side of liberal pro-government groups, Chung Dong-young is very likely to become a unified candidate to represent a newly merging party to be called ``the United Democratic Party'' _ combining the United New Democratic Party (UNDP) and the Democratic Party (DP). Chung trails 25 percent behind Lee Myung-bak and 5 percent behind Lee Hoi-chang.
Unless either Lee drops out, Chung would have almost no chance to win. Although Lee Hoi-chang might be easier than Lee Myung-bak to compete with, Chung knows the people in general are fed up with the Roh Moo-hyun government and believe it's time for a change. Chung has been fighting an uphill battle. Lee Hoi-chang will not drop out, according to his ardent supporters. And there is good reason that he will not.
There are several reasons for Chung's struggling ratings: (1) voters identify Chung with Roh and his policy failure, (2) Korean society as a whole has become more conservative in a repercussion to the failed leftist attempt for reform, (3) despite the Roh government's peace efforts, people are more interested in economic welfare at home, and (4) people are not sure Chung can deliver his campaign promises.
For Chung to have a chance, the best scenario will be both Lees running to the last, splitting the conservative, anti-Roh and anti-liberal forces. In this calculation, the notion of indicting Lee Myung-bak would not benefit Chung. Chung's challenge is how he can differentiate himself from Roh. It would be easier for Lee In-je, the DP's candidate and an outspoken critic of Roh, if he prevails over Chung in the scheduled polls on Nov. 23 -24, to distance himself from Roh. But that's unlikely to happen.
Chung needs to criticize President Roh at least some of the clearly unpopular policy measures including the closing of press rooms in government offices, increased real estate taxes, economic policies that failed to create jobs, etc. The problem is that the reactive Roh is unlikely to be silent or acquiesce if criticized. Chung does not even seem to have President Roh's full support.
Even in the Jeolla region that has traditionally supported former president Kim Dae Jung and other liberal politicians, a significant percentage of the voters are supporting the conservative Lee Myung-bak because of their disappointment with the Roh government. Chung and his people are working hard to bring them back, but it's not easy. It is not certain whether Chung can absorb the supporters of Moon Kook-hyun, the minority Creative Korea Party candidate, who would only chip away votes from Chung, not from either Lee, if Moon runs to the last.
A 30-day countdown begins today for South Korea's presidential election. It still seems likely at the end of the day the December 19 election will primarily be a three-way race among the two Lees and Chung.
Whichever candidate can attack his opponents most effectively will be elected the next president of the Republic of Korea. And there is plenty of ground to wage attacks on each other. Late at this point policy does not seem to matter.
While campaign platforms should remain as an essential element to election strategy, what really matters is the voters' vindictiveness or dissatisfaction against a candidate(s) whom they like to see defeated. So the question is which candidate can better turn the voters against their opponent (s). What's your take?
Tong Kim is former senior interpreter at the U.S. state department and now a research professor with Ilmin Institute of International Relations at Korea University and a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins University SAIS.