By Tong Kim
As most people are busy going about their business, the presidential election is getting nasty and even vicious in South Korea. Dirty politics _ employing the means of mudslinging and malicious slander _ is not new in democratic elections. But it appears to be getting worse this year.
It is hard to deny that a negative attack, if planned and executed well, can be very effective as a tactic of deception and distraction to tarnish an opponent’s image or to discredit an opponent’s policy platform. A negative campaign attack may or may not have a factual basis to be effective. It often stirs up old suspicions or creates new ones without presenting clear evidence or a smoking gun.
This game is often played by an underdog against the frontrunner. The objective of this strategy is not so much to elevate the underdog’s standing but to exploit the failing record and other vulnerabilities of the opponent, especially when the underdog’s strength is not readily recognizable.
In this sense, it is not surprising that Lee Myung-bak, still the front runner among all active and prospective contenders, has been the primary target for relentless attacks from all directions from within and outside the Grand National Party (GNP). On the other hand, a recent dent in his support speaks of the efficacy of negative attacks.
In theory, a transparent scrutiny of presidential hopefuls’ policy proposals and their records is justifiable and desirable. Lee Myung-bak’s camp argues the GNP’s investigation hearing would only undermine the elect-ability of the party’s final candidate.
Yet Park Geun-hye’s camp insists that unless Lee is proven clean, he would lose the main election. The pro-government forces signaled that they have an ``X-File’’ on Lee that would be fatal to his bid to the presidency.
Charges against Lee Myung-bak are numerous, including the latest suspicions of his involvement in the fraudulent financial scandal of an investment company called BBK, whose CEO fled to the United States, and also whether some of Lee’s past real estate transactions were illegal or immoral. Of course, Lee and his spokesmen vehemently denied the charges, expressing anger at the accusers.
Park is implicated in the mismanagement of a scholarship foundation. An attack dog came out to accuse her father, former president Park Chung-hee, of taking the foundation illegally. Park is also accused of allowing the misappropriation of funds at a university in Daegu. Park and her people quickly dismissed the charges as ``groundless negative attacks.’’ Park says she is ready to disprove them at the GNP’s coming investigation.
Apparently the pro-government forces, who call themselves ``peace and democratic reform forces,’’ believe Park Geun-hye would be easier to defeat than Lee Myung-bak in December. President Roh Moo-hyun and several national legislators, now representing the fragmented factions of the once dominant Uri Party, all started waging attacks in chorus against Lee Myung-bak, whose strength lies in the public perception that he can turnaround the nation’s economy.
Roh criticized Lee’s ``Grand Inland Canal Project’’ with the support of a feasibility study that was conducted by a state-run policy institute. The canal project was also questioned by Park and other GNP contenders. Judging from all practical indications, the canal project is not an attractive selling point at this time. The people don’t think that Lee will achieve his ambitious goal of 747 (7 percent growth, $40,000 per capita income and seventh economic power) by completing the canal project.
Putting it on the shelf for the time being will be a smart thing to do, as Lee said at one point, “we will review it thoroughly in the next government to make a final decision as the people want.”
Park’s strength is the voters’ perception of her integrity and her patriotic devotion, but her flagship platform of “small government, deregulation and tax cuts” does not seem to have major appeal. She needs to address the perception of her inflexibility and develop a clear simple policy that can rally public support. If she wins the nomination, her challengers will ruthlessly attack her as a “dictator’s daughter.”
Still in the phase of disintegration, the pro-government forces do have a few competitive candidates, but in order to have a better chance only one of them should run in December. So far Sohn Hak-kyu, former governor of Gyunggi Province, Lee Hae-chan, former prime minister, Kim Hyuk-kyu, former governor of Gyungnam Province, and Jong Dong-nyung, former chairman of the Uri Party, probably are the strongest contenders.
One policy position common to these hopefuls is their unswerving support of engagement and cooperation with North Korea, but with varying positions on the question of linking it with the nuclear issue. Even President Roh and former president Kim Dae-jung (DJ) have slightly different views. Roh seems to be more inclined to link the two.
On the domestic front Roh and DJ also have different approaches, although both are committed to prevent the conservative GNP from grabbing power.
A lifetime political strategist, DJ has reemerged as the center of all anti-GNP forces, favoring a single candidate who can represent all untied ``peace and reform forces,’’ inclusive of loyalists to President Roh who may be responsible for the failures of his policy. He sees this is the only sure way for his Sunshine Policy to survive. He supports the reconstruction of the old Democratic Party, whose power base is the Jeolla region.
A determined political fighter, Roh has become more vocal to defend his administration and to counterattack any critics and challengers. He disapproves a return to regional politics. He points out that the victories in the last two presidential elections would not have been possible without a third party candidate or himself taking away chunks of votes from the GNP’s power base in the Kyungsang region.
Whoever becomes the final candidate for the pro-government forces, he will get the full support of both Roh and DJ. Roh has a solid political base that accounts for about 20 percent of the people. DJ is still a symbolic and virtual leader for his region and for the liberal democratic forces who seek peace and cooperation with the North.
A North-South summit that might take place before the election, along with progress on the six party talks in the wake of a BDA (Banco Delta Asia) resolution, will create a favorable political condition for the liberal camps. But Pyongyang’s GNP bashing _ an insensible interference of the internal affairs of the South _ will have an adverse effect.
In this context, it is a challenge for the GNP candidates, who will debate security and foreign policy issues this week, to come up with a persuasive visionary policy on North Korea that the voters would feel comfortable to support. The GNP has been seen as opposing the government’s policy without offering an alternative.
Toward the end of the December election, negative campaigns will continue and their players will include just about everybody on all political camps. What’s your take?
Tong Kim is former senior interpreter at the U.S. State Department and now a research professor at Korea University and a visiting scholar at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).