KDI raises Korea's 2026 growth outlook to 3.2% amid AI boom
Summary
KDI raised Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.2 percent on Wednesday, up from 2.5 percent, citing stronger-than-expected global demand from the AI boom. It also projected 2.2 percent growth for 2027, up 0.5 percentage point from its previous outlook. The institute said exports and facility investment are being lifted by semiconductor demand, while construction investment remains weak outside greater Seoul. It warned that semiconductor cycle swings, U.S. tariff policies, and Middle East tensions could still unsettle growth.
Key Facts
- KDI projected Korean export volumes to rise 8.7 percent in 2026 and 5 percent in 2027.
- The think tank said computers, electronics and optical instruments are continuing to grow sharply, with the current account posting an unprecedented surplus.
- Moody’s Ratings reportedly revised up Korea’s growth forecast to 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent in its periodic review.
- KDI said growth could slow rapidly if global AI investment contracts or if South Korean chipmakers lose global market share amid tighter competition.
Containers are stacked at a port in the southeastern port city of Busan, Aug. 6. Yonhap
Korea's economy is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, a state-run think tank said Wednesday, revising up its previous forecast of 2.5 percent amid stronger-than-expected global demand driven by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.
The Korea Development Institute (KDI) said the revision came as global demand for semiconductor products remained stronger than expected, leading to increased exports and facility investment, which are expected to eventually boost private consumption in 2027.
Accordingly, the KDI also projected economic growth of 2.2 percent for 2027, up 0.5 percentage point from its previous outlook.
The think tank added that Korean export volumes are expected to grow 8.7 percent and 5 percent in 2026 and 2027, respectively, despite U.S. tariff measures and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, as AI-related investment around the globe is expected to offset such hurdles.
The KDI, meanwhile, assessed that Korea is currently enjoying a surge in exports and facility investment amid the AI boom.
"Exports of computers, electronics and optical instruments continue to grow at a sharp pace, with the current account posting an unprecedented surplus," the KDI said in its report.
"Facility investment is expanding, led by chip-related segments," it added, noting that construction investment, in contrast, remains sluggish due to a slump in the housing market outside the greater Seoul area.
Global credit appraiser Moody's Ratings, meanwhile, also reportedly revised up the growth forecast for Asia's No. 4 economy to 3.5 percent, rising from the previous projection of 2.5 percent suggested in May, in its periodic review.
The KDI, however, warned that changes in the semiconductor industry cycle may increase economic volatility, given the Korean economy's heavy reliance on global chip demand.
"Growth may slow rapidly should global AI investment contract due to concerns over profitability or South Korean chipmakers' global market shares decline amid heightened competition with producers from other countries," the think tank said.
The KDI, on the other hand, said growth may exceed expectations if Korean companies expand their semiconductor production capacity at a faster-than-expected pace.
Other potential risks include uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt raw material supplies, it added.
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