Trump factor shadows APEC summit: Can leaders adopt ‘Gyeongju Declaration’?

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, not seen, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Wednesday (local time). EPA-Yonhap

Leaders from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies will gather next week in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, with one elephant in the room: U.S. President Donald Trump.

The APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, scheduled for Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, will be the first gathering of the regional economic forum since Trump began his second term in January, and tensions are already running high.

More than half of APEC's 21 member economies have been hit with U.S. tariffs imposed under Trump's "America First" trade policies, which have strained relations and cast doubt on Washington’s commitment to free trade, which APEC has long championed.

Founded in 1989 to promote open trade and investment, APEC has sought to uphold a rules-based trading order and multilateral cooperation through the World Trade Organization (WTO). But those values have increasingly come under pressure as major economies turn inward, with the Trump administration leading that shift.

According to diplomatic sources, officials from APEC member economies are engaged in last-minute negotiations over the wording of a joint statement to be adopted at the summit.

As the host nation, Korea is pushing to secure an agreement reaffirming support for free trade in a joint statement, tentatively titled the "Gyeongju Declaration."

In recent years, APEC summit declarations have consistently reaffirmed support for a rules-based multilateral trading system with the WTO at its core.

However, reaching a similar consensus may prove difficult this year. APEC decisions require unanimous agreement, meaning that a single objection can block a proposal.

If the summit ends without a joint communique, the host economy would instead issue a chair's statement.

Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said it may be difficult for the upcoming APEC summit to produce a declaration that includes a strong reaffirmation of free trade.

"Whether to include language emphasizing free trade remains a point of contention," Cho said during a radio interview Thursday. "Restoring the spirit of cooperation will not be easy. But the fact that we are discussing how to navigate the current disorder in global political and economic affairs is meaningful in itself."

A welcome zone for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings is seen at Gimhae International Airport in Busan, Thursday. Yonhap

Trump is widely expected to skip the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, the forum’s main event, and instead arrive in Korea on Oct. 29 for a one- or two-day stay, mainly for a series of bilateral talks. His likely absence is being seen as a reflection of U.S. skepticism toward free trade principles.

The 2018 APEC summit in Papua New Guinea, Trump's first as president, became the first in the forum's history to end without a joint declaration amid escalating trade rivalry between Washington and Beijing.

Observers caution that this year's summit may head in a similar direction.

In preparatory meetings for the upcoming APEC events, the U.S. has reportedly objected to including strong references to the WTO's role or the importance of a rules-based trading system. Some suggest that even if the WTO is mentioned in the document, the language will likely be softened to downplay the organization’s significance.

That trend was already evident at the APEC trade ministers' meeting in May on Jeju Island, where the ministers merely agreed on "the importance of the WTO for advancing trade issues," a notably weaker position than in previous years.

"It's very possible there will be no formal APEC joint statement in Gyeongju even if President Trump is there, as he may not formally join the summit," Sean King, senior vice president of New York-based Park Strategies, told The Korea Times.

"And even if he does attend, he's likely to stand against, or at least apart from, much of what is discussed."

King added that producing a joint statement may not be the main focus of this year's APEC summit, as much of the attention will center on Trump's bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and, possibly, a surprise meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.