ED Riding the 'Trump effect'

Acting President Han Duck-soo, left, wipes tears from his face as he attends an event to commemorate fallen soldiers at the National Cemetery in Daejeon, Friday. Yonhap

With Rep. Lee Jae-myung securing a landslide victory in the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) primaries on Sunday, all eyes are now turning to the conservative camp ahead of the June 3 presidential election.

The question now is who will face Lee in the presidential race?

At present, there is no definitive answer. The People Power Party (PPP) is holding its own primaries, featuring a three-way contest among former Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo and former PPP Chairman Han Dong-hoon. Recent polls suggest a neck-and-neck race among the three, with Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo trailing behind.

If any candidate secures 50 percent or more of the vote, he will be declared the winner when results are announced on Tuesday. However, given the tight competition among Kim, Hong and Han, it's unlikely that any one candidate will surpass the 50 percent threshold. In that case, the top two contenders will advance to a run-off, with the final result to be announced on May 3.

But the tight three-way race isn't the only reason the PPP's nomination remains unpredictable.

Acting President Han Duck-soo has emerged as a wild card. He is reportedly planning to declare his presidential bid on Wednesday — just one day after the PPP releases its primary results. His entry would further complicate the PPP’s already tense schedule, as the eventual primary winner would then have to face Han in another high-stakes contest for the final nomination.

Han’s recent rise in popularity is largely credited to what observers are calling the “Trump effect.” His support surged following a phone call with former U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month. During the conversation, Trump reportedly asked whether Han intended to run, to which Han replied he had not yet made a decision.

Han first appeared in public opinion polls on April 11, when Gallup ranked him in fourth place with 2 percent support — tied with Ahn. Since then, his support has increased steadily, and he is now considered a leading conservative contender. Still, DPK candidate Lee continues to dominate, maintaining support in the 40 percent range.

Han’s supporters believe Trump's inquiry signaled subtle backing, interpreting it as reassurance that a Han presidency would ensure the Korea-U.S. alliance remains strong. As concerns grow over potential diplomatic tensions between Seoul and Washington should Lee win, Han’s rise is seen by some as a stabilizing alternative. It remains to be seen whether his recent surge in popularity will continue — and if it does, whether it will be strong and durable enough to carry him through the conservative primary and ultimately help him win the June 3 presidential election.

While Han boasts a long record of public service, it is still uncertain whether he possesses the qualities needed to lead a deeply divided nation. His experience as a Cabinet member and prime minister is well-documented, but questions remain about his capability to unify the country and deliver bold leadership in times of political turmoil.

Han served as finance minister and later as prime minister under the liberal Roh Moo-hyun administration. When conservative President Lee Myung-bak took office, Han was appointed as South Korea’s ambassador to the United States. He returned to the post of prime minister under President Yoon Suk Yeol and is currently serving as acting president following Yoon’s impeachment.

Despite his extensive experience in government, Han has yet to demonstrate that he is fully prepared for the presidency. The role of an acting president is inherently limited. While Han chairs Cabinet meetings and makes important national decisions, the Constitutional Court recently ruled that he does not have the authority to nominate Constitutional Court justices — highlighting the caretaker nature of his current role rather than that of a full-fledged head of state.

So far, Han has managed his caretaker duties effectively. But fulfilling the duties of an interim leader does not automatically qualify him as a transformative figure capable of uniting the country and steering it through economic and social challenges.

His rise in the polls has been attributed largely to the Trump effect, after his recent phone call with the U.S. president drew public attention and appeared to lend him legitimacy. Still, it is ultimately up to Han to prove that he is more than a temporary figure buoyed by external influence.

To truly earn the presidency, Han must demonstrate that he has the vision, leadership and resilience necessary to heal divisions and move the country forward.