Will Seoul-Beijing-Tokyo FTA emerge against Trump?

Korean Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun, center, shakes hands with Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto, left, and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao ahead of their meeting at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Seoul, Sunday. Yonhap

A trilateral economic ministers' meeting between Korea, China and Japan is prompting speculation that the three countries may reach a long-delayed free trade agreement (FTA) amid U.S. tariff threats.

For now, however, Korea remains cautious about leveraging this solidarity, wary that it could be perceived as a challenge to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Trump announced, Wednesday (local time), plans to impose 25 percent "reciprocal" tariffs on Korea.

China and Japan face respective new rates of 34 percent and 24 percent.

Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun held a trilateral meeting Sunday with his Chinese and Japanese counterparts, Wang Wentao and Yoji Muto, respectively, marking the first such gathering since 2019.

Even though the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy — committed to continuing discussions with the two Asian economic powerhouses on the agreement — described the meeting as another milestone in trilateral cooperation, it also emphasized that it did not necessarily pave a shortcut to finalizing a trilateral FTA.

“We have been discussing the FTA for quite some time. The joint statement from the meeting also stated that discussion will continue,” the ministry’s spokesperson Lee Won-ju said. “But the meeting did not result in a concrete step toward finalizing the FTA.”

The most eager participant was the Chinese minister, who expressed a strong willingness to resume practical steps toward launching a trilateral FTA. He also urged his Korean counterpart to advance the terms of the existing Korea-China FTA to develop an upgraded version. This push comes as China seeks to strengthen its global partnerships in response to Trump’s increasingly aggressive trade measures.

However, Lee declined to confirm that the Korean ministry is fully aligned with China on the matter.

“We’ve checked how the Chinese minister said on China’s CCTV about how it will respond to the U.S. government’s trade measures, mentioning words like 'unilateralism' and 'protectionism.' We don’t agree. We never agreed on that during the trilateral meeting,” Lee said. “Yes, the trilateral meeting saw us agreeing to strengthen the regional supply chains and trades, but not to form any joint aggression against the U.S.”

Jang Sang-sik, head of trade trend analysis at the Korea International Trade Association, said Korea and Japan remain more inclined toward the United States than China due to their long-standing trade relationships with Washington. He noted that Trump’s tariff measures have created a rift between the U.S. and its global allies, and China is seeking to fill that gap with its growing global influence.

“It seems China’s desire to fill that gap has partially resonated with the three countries' shared need to further diversify their supply chains and build stronger regional partnerships in response to Trump’s trade policies, which are shifting from protectionism to outright economic nationalism,” Jang said. “Moreover, China has grown more confident in its technological and industrial advancements, making it feel more assured about pursuing a trilateral FTA.”

However, Jang noted that trilateral free trade remains a distant prospect due to the geopolitical landscape, which has traditionally kept Korea and Japan aligned more closely with the U.S.

“Korea and Japan have been increasingly integrated into global supply chains and economic networks led by the U.S., which makes Korea cautious about working more closely with China. Strengthening ties with China might prompt the U.S. to become less supportive of Korea, and the Korean government is well aware of this. As a result, the trilateral FTA will likely remain a distant prospect for the time being,” Jang said.

Suh Jeong-in, an emeritus professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said it is "natural that Korea and Japan are mindful of the U.S. while engaging in trilateral talks with China."