NK's economic growth is 'temporary' thanks to Russia-Ukraine war, study says

North Korea’s recent economic growth in the 3 percent range was a “temporary war windfall” from the Russia-Ukraine war that would potentially lead to reduced domestic consumption, according to an analysis released by a think tank run by South Korea's spy agency on Sunday.

In a research paper titled “Is North Korea’s economy really booming?” released Thursday by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a South Korean state-run think tank affiliated with the National Intelligence Service (NIS), senior research fellow Lim Soo-ho wrote, “What North Korea is enjoying right now is not genuine growth in its domestic economy, but rather a predatory expansion — a temporary windfall in regime finances built on war profits and inflation tax.”

“North Korea’s recent economic growth has been heavily driven by a unilateral surge in heavy industry and construction … Those facilities and manufactured munitions yield almost no tangible benefit for public livelihood,” he added.

Citing Bank of Korea estimates, showing North Korea’s real gross domestic product grew by 3.5 percent in 2025, following growth of 3.1 percent in 2023 and 3.7 percent in 2024, marking three consecutive years of growth in the 3 percent range, the report said the growth range is lower than other developing countries given the size of arms exports to Russia that began in the second half of 2023 and the growth heavily focused in specific sectors such as munitions and construction. Until 2022, Pyongyang continued to record negative economic growth for the last consecutive years.

“Pyongyang’s 3 percent range growth and domestic sector growth depend heavily on the Russia-Ukraine war. If Russia stops ordering the armories and reciprocal aid stops, North Korea’s arms plants and factories will become immediately useless.”

The analysis estimated the accumulated economic value of North Korea’s arms exports to Russia since August 2023 and troop deployments since October 2024 at approximately $11 billion (14.67 trillion won) as of late last year. If the scale of arms exports and troop deployments keeps at last year’s levels, the cumulative economic value is projected to reach around $16 billion by the end of this year.

The analysis also noted that prices of certain goods in North Korea’s private markets, known as jangmadang, rose by triple-digit percentages.

“Between the first quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2026, the North Korean won plummeted against major foreign currencies, with exchange rates for the U.S. dollar and Chinese yuan surging by 646.5 percent and 697.2 percent, respectively. Over the same period, market prices for essential commodities skyrocketed: rice rose by 599.4 percent, corn by 447 percent, pork by 368.3 percent, gasoline by 527 percent and diesel by 669.8 percent.”