Expert says chance of Trump-Kim meeting is 'slim to none'

WASHINGTON — A prominent expert said Tuesday that he sees a "slim-to-none" chance of another meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, noting that the resumption of their summitry depends on how low the United States sets the bar or how willing Trump is to make concessions.

Bruce Klingner, senior fellow at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation, made the remarks during a forum in Washington, amid speculation that Trump could seek a summit with Kim during his next trip to Asia, likely to attend a regional forum in Shenzhen, China in November.

"I think overall, the chance of a meeting is sort of slim to none, and slim just rode out of town," he said during the forum hosted by the Korea Economic Institute of America.

"But it could still happen. It depends on sort of how low the U.S. sets the bar or how willing Trump is to offer concessions," he added.

Klingner's comment came amid growing expectations for Trump's potential outreach to Kim, which some observers said might be an effort to win a diplomatic feat and burnish his image as a peacemaker, while deflecting attention from the Iran war that has dragged on ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November.

The expert pointed out that Pyongyang does not feel the need to engage with the U.S. for assistance given its deepening cooperation with Russia and improved ties with China.

"North Korea right now feels (it is) in the strongest position it's been for quite some time. It's getting 14 to 20 billion or more, or billions of dollars in food, fuel, funding, and military technology from Russia. Its trade with China has largely resumed to pre-COVID levels," he said.

"It's getting about a billion dollars a year from cryptocurrency crime, so it doesn't need the U.S. and sanctions relief as it did several years ago."

Klingner warned that while Trump would seek to resume dialogue with Pyongyang, he may not care about what South Korean and Japanese interests are.

He criticized Trump's decision to scale back South Korea-U.S. military exercises as a "trifecta of failure" -- a term he used in his Aug. 17 social media post to argue that it would "degrade allied deterrence," "punish a stalwart ally" for not joining the war on Iran, and "appease yet another dictator."

"We were going to degrade allied deterrence as we did for several years during Trump's first term when he canceled exercises," he said.

"I think he's willing to just keep doing it because it's not only ... it's not some diplomatic outreach. He said, 'I hate them. I've always hated them. I think they are silly. I think they're provocative war games, but let the generals play their games.'"

He went on to say that after seeing Trump cancel allied drills, North Korea may deem the move "not good enough" and ask for more concessions from Washington.

Commenting on trilateral cooperation with Japan, Klingner said that Seoul and Tokyo have been good about maintaining their relationship, but the "weak link" has been Trump's attitude and actions towards alliances.

"I'd say right now the biggest threat to the three countries is North Korea, but the biggest challenge is the United States," he said.

"We've seen Trump's transactional approach to alliances, rather than the bipartisan, decades-long consensus that alliances are in our interest, and that stationing forces overseas is in our strategic interest."