Analysis3 hurdles stand in way of Trump-Kim summit

U.S. President Donald Trump wants to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un again. But seven years after their last summit, Kim has far less reason to return to the negotiating table on Washington’s terms.

A summit would first require Kim to respond. Washington and Pyongyang would then have to navigate their fundamental differences over North Korea’s nuclear status, while Trump would have to keep the issue high on his agenda amid competing foreign policy challenges and the approaching U.S. midterm elections.

Trump is openly pushing to revive summit diplomacy this year, leaning again on the personal relationship with Kim that produced unprecedented face-to-face meetings during his first term. He also recently ordered a scaling back of the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise between South Korea and the United States, prompting the allies to end the drills six days earlier than planned in what was widely seen as a conciliatory gesture toward Pyongyang.

Kim is in no hurry

The first question is whether Kim sees enough reason to meet Trump at all.

North Korea has offered no direct response from Kim to Trump’s overture. Instead, Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader’s powerful sister, mocked Seoul after the allies cut short the exercise, saying Trump’s sudden order had left South Korea in the “pathetic predicament” of having to call off the “war games” it enjoyed.

Pyongyang also fired about 10 short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on Thursday. South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said the weapons were assessed to be North Korea’s 600 mm multiple rocket launchers.

A senior unification ministry official said Pyongyang appears to be in no hurry to respond to Trump’s overture, noting that its negotiating position has changed considerably since the Hanoi summit seven years ago.

“North Korea is in no rush now,” the official said, adding that the balance of leverage between Washington and Pyongyang has shifted.

Still, Kim Yo-jong’s statements do not necessarily mean Pyongyang has closed the door on Washington.

“North Korea appears to be approaching the United States and South Korea on different tracks,” Yu Ji-hoon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, told The Korea Times.

“It is leaving open the possibility of direct negotiations with the U.S. when necessary, while treating South Korea as a target of criticism and pressure rather than as a negotiating partner.”

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said the chances of a summit could reach at least 50 percent if certain conditions are met.

“If Trump sends a more concrete message along these lines and actively communicates it, North Korea would be more likely to respond,” Hong said, referring to an approach in which Washington seeks to improve relations with Pyongyang and manage the North Korean threat rather than pursue immediate denuclearization.

Nuclear status poses bigger obstacle

A more difficult hurdle is the nuclear issue itself.

North Korea has rejected talks premised on denuclearization and insists that its status as a nuclear weapons state is irreversible. Washington, meanwhile, officially maintains denuclearization as its goal.

The last round of summit diplomacy centered on trading steps toward denuclearization for sanctions relief. With North Korea’s nuclear arsenal having grown substantially since then, reviving that formula would be far more difficult.

“Trump appears to recognize to some extent that denuclearization is unrealistic and seems to be leaning toward managing the threat through his relationship with Kim Jong-un,” Hong said.

Such an approach could also appeal to Pyongyang.

Hong said North Korea may now see broader improvement in relations with Washington as more advantageous than demanding specific concessions such as an end to joint military exercises or sanctions relief.

“The meeting itself would have the indirect political effect of recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” he said.

Sean King, an Asia specialist and senior vice president at New York-based consultancy Park Strategies, was more critical.

“Trump’s already all but accepted North Korea as a nuclear weapons state,” King told The Korea Times.

Keeping North Korea on agenda

The final hurdle is whether Trump can sustain his push long enough to make a summit happen.

His administration is dealing with competing foreign policy issues, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and tensions involving Iran and China.

“I have a hard time imagining Kim and Trump meeting so long as Russia’s war on Ukraine is still ongoing,” King said.

Domestic politics, however, could give Trump a reason to move faster. With the U.S. midterm elections approaching in November, another round of diplomacy with Kim could give him an opportunity to claim a foreign policy achievement.

Hong said Trump could seek to complete a summit before the elections and present the outcome as an achievement. Another possibility would be to build expectations for a meeting with Kim before the vote and carry that momentum through the election.

There could be resistance within the State Department, and among the U.S. foreign policy establishment, to an approach seen as accommodating North Korea’s nuclear status, Hong said.

But if Trump sees diplomacy with North Korea as a way to score a diplomatic win ahead of the midterms, “there is a good chance he will push hard for it,” Hong said.