Ball in N. Korea's court after Trump's summit overture, experts say

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un before their first summit on Sentosa Island, Singapore in June 2018 during the former's first presidential term. EPA-Yonhap

U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled a desire to reengage with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, raising the possibility of a meeting during his expected visit to China in November. But analysts say any such overture may go unanswered as Pyongyang currently sees little reason to return to negotiations.

North Korea, bolstered by support from Russia and China, has far less need for sanctions relief than it did during the previous summits between Trump and Kim in 2018 and 2019, experts said. Kim may also demand recognition of North Korea as a nuclear-armed state, a condition unacceptable to Washington, and could question whether meeting Trump would serve his interests if the Republican Party loses the U.S. midterm elections.

“North Korea is unlikely to accept Trump’s approach, given its strengthened ties with Russia and the support it receives in return for joining Moscow’s war against Ukraine,” Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, said Wednesday.

Shin Beom-chul, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, agreed that Pyongyang is under far less pressure to negotiate than it was when Kim entered talks with Trump in 2018.

“North Korea came forward in 2018 because the sanctions imposed in 2017 were so severe that they were strangling its economy,” Shin said. “Its economic circumstances are completely different now, as it receives economic support from Russia and maintains relations with China.”

The analysts’ assessments came after The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Tuesday reported, citing U.S. officials, that Trump was pressing his aides to arrange a meeting with Kim, possibly in November when world leaders gather in Shenzhen, China, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

If held on the sidelines of the APEC gathering, the Trump-Kim meeting would take place about two weeks after the Nov. 3 midterm elections in the U.S. and could allow Trump to showcase diplomatic progress.

Meanwhile, North Korea’s military cooperation with Russia has provided Pyongyang with a new major source of revenue.

The Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy estimated in March that North Korea had earned between $7.7 billion and $14.4 billion from arms sales and troop deployments to Russia, while Bloomberg Economics separately put Pyongyang's military-related earnings from Moscow between 2022 and 2025 at more than $14 billion.

“Trump’s latest outreach may be aimed partly at securing a diplomatic achievement around the U.S. midterm elections, and Kim could be reluctant to let the president use a summit to shore up his falling support amid the prolonged war with Iran,” Yang said.

Shin argued that Trump may avoid substantive issues, such as North Korea’s denuclearization, while Kim could demand that Washington recognize the North as a de facto nuclear-armed state.

“That would be difficult for the U.S. to accept, while entering such negotiations could further hurt Trump’s popularity,” he said, citing the gap as another reason a Trump-Kim summit would be unlikely.

Shin went on to say that Kim would have little reason to meet Trump if the Republican Party loses both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections.

“Trump would become a lame duck and struggle to secure the legislation needed to implement any agreement,” he said.

Asking not to be named, a researcher at a security think tank cautioned that the WSJ report indicated only that Trump was seeking to arrange such a meeting, rather than confirming that Washington had extended an official invitation to Pyongyang.

He added that even if the Trump-Kim meeting materializes, “it would most likely reflect Kim’s desire to showcase his international standing and provide little more than another photo opportunity for the two leaders.”