Trump-Kim summit not imminent, but door remains open: experts

This photo, captured from U.S. President Donald Trump's Truth Social account, shows Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un posing at the inter-Korean border truce village of Panmunjeom on June 30, 2019. Captured from Trump's Truth Social account

While U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had responded to his recent outreach, talks between the two leaders are unlikely to resume soon, though the possibility remains, experts said.

Asked why Kim hadn't replied to his requests for talks, Trump told reporters, "How do you know he hasn't responded?" When pressed on whether Kim had in fact responded, Trump said, "Yeah, he has." Regarding the progress of the exchange, he only said that "it's very positive," offering no further detail.

The remarks came a day after Trump ordered the Pentagon to reduce what he called "inappropriate and hostile" military drills with Seoul — the first such move since the start of his second term. During his first term, following the June 2018 summit with Kim in Singapore, Trump similarly scaled down and suspended some drills, referring to them as "war games."

The drawdown appears to be taking shape on the ground. A source close to the matter said Tuesday that the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command deployed personnel to CP Tango, the wartime command post in Seongnam, Gyeonggi Province, on Sunday for the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, only to withdraw them a day later, except for a skeleton crew. The exercise is now being conducted instead at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, the peacetime command facility.

U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Xavier Brunson visited the Ministry of National Defense Tuesday to discuss the scaling back of the exercise. Asked why he had come, Brunson reportedly responded by asking whether they had seen Trump's social media post, saying he was there to discuss the matter the U.S. leader had raised.

The source also said U.S. forces have withdrawn from South Korea-led portions of the exercise and that drills previously led jointly by the two militaries have been changed to proceed unilaterally, without South Korean participation.

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un look at each other before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone in the inter-Korean truce village of Panmunjeom in this June 30, 2019 file photo. AFP-Yonhap

Asked about the possibility of a new Trump-Kim summit, a Ministry of Unification official dismissed speculation that communication through the so-called New York channel — a contact point between the U.S. State Department's Korean Peninsula affairs office and North Korea's mission to the United Nations — had stopped.

"If talks between Washington and Pyongyang materialize, the government will serve as a facilitator, driving progress toward peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula while shifting momentum toward inter-Korean reconciliation and joint cooperation," the official said.

Experts pointed out that Trump’s remarks are aimed at restarting dialogue with Pyongyang regardless of their authenticity, but cautioned that neither side appears ready for talks to resume immediately.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said this reflects one of Trump's typical negotiating tactics.

“While fact-checking Trump’s remarks is difficult, it is straight out of Trump's typical negotiation playbook: creating a fait accompli. By declaring that talks are happening — whether North Korea actually replied or not — he forces Pyongyang to think how to react. If North Korea denies it, they risk an unpredictable backlash from Trump,” Park said.

Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University, was more skeptical of any near-term engagement.

“From Kim’s perspective, he has no choice but to view Trump’s message as another attempt to exploit him for political gain. Pyongyang is not in a position to seriously consider diplomatic engagement with the U.S. administration that is completely unprepared for real dialogue,” Lim said.

“Right now, Pyongyang prefers a state of hostile coexistence. Some observers might think scaling down or canceling joint South Korea-U.S. military drills serves Kim’s interests, but it doesn't. North Korea currently gains far more practical advantages — and domestic political stability — by deepening ties with Russia and China.”

Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), offered a similar assessment during a CSIS online event Monday.

"I don't think the North Koreans are going to respond right away. I think they're going to bide their time and wait a little bit," he said.

A photo released by North Korea's state-run news outlet Korean Central News Agency on June 23, 2019 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reading a letter from U.S. President Donald Trump, in Pyongyang, North Korea. EPA-Yonhap

However, Park believes a breakthrough remains possible if actual preliminary talks follow. He raised the possibility that Trump has already sent a letter to Kim and suggested any formal talks may not materialize until after the U.S. midterm elections, slated for November.

"Historically, talks with Pyongyang face criticism within the U.S. and American presidents tend to push unpopular foreign policy initiatives after the midterms. As North Korea consistently demands the suspension of joint U.S.-South Korea military drills as a prerequisite for talks, scaling down or halting those exercises was not sufficient but met the minimum condition for talks," he explained.

Park added that further steps — including personal letters, back-channel contact or an official proposal — would be needed to move talks forward.

"Kim Jong-un also said that his personal relationship with Trump remained good and left the door open for improving ties. This indicates that North Korea is not ruling out dialogue entirely," he said, noting that Pyongyang has its own incentives to engage, mainly the need to have sanctions lifted.

"North Korea also feels a desperate need for dialogue, with U.S. economic sanctions bringing hardship on North Korea, and lifting them requires direct negotiations with Washington. Furthermore, as noted, even if Pyongyang seeks to become a recognized, full-fledged nuclear state, sanctions must first be removed and the U.S. holds the key to making that happen."

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will make an official visit to Seoul from Wednesday to Thursday at the invitation of his South Korean counterpart — his first visit to the capital since September 2021. North Korea-related issues are expected to be among the topics to be discussed.

Asked about the potential for China to help facilitate a resumption of U.S.-North Korea talks during the visit, Lim said, "Even if the (South Korean) government knows the odds are slim, it will try and keep every spark of diplomacy alive."

Korea Times reporter Bahk Eun-ji contributed to this article.