North Korea courts China, Russia at once to build leverage against US, analysts say

North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui, left, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov shake hands during a ceremony to unveil a plaque in memory of Kim Il-sung, former president of North Korea, at Yaroslavsky Railway Station in Moscow, in this Nov. 1, 2024 file photo. TASS-Yonhap

North Korea is stepping up high-level diplomatic engagement with both China and Russia in what experts describe as a calculated effort to maximize its strategic value to both powers and strengthen its leverage against the United States amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry in Northeast Asia.

The latest diplomatic flurry saw North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui arrive in Moscow on Friday at the invitation of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, while senior North Korean official Pak Thae-song recently visited Beijing and China's fourth-ranking leader Wang Huning traveled to Pyongyang to mark the 65th anniversary of the Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance.

The near-simultaneous exchanges reflect Pyongyang's broader effort to deepen ties with both traditional partners rather than relying exclusively on either, allowing the Kim Jong-un regime to extract greater political, economic and security benefits while maintaining room for diplomatic maneuver.

"The current pattern should be viewed less as an urgent necessity than as an increasingly regularized cycle of high-level bilateral diplomacy," Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), told The Korea Times on Sunday.

"The factors driving North Korea-Russia cooperation have not disappeared. Russia continues to face difficulties in the war in Ukraine, military cooperation between the two countries remains necessary and both sides need to continuously coordinate their diplomatic and security positions."

Hong noted that ministerial, defense and summit-level exchanges between Pyongyang and Moscow are likely to become increasingly institutionalized.

"North Korea, China and Russia are all holding important bilateral meetings this year. North Korea and Russia also need opportunities to share the outcomes of those diplomatic engagements, coordinate their positions on regional issues and reinforce areas of cooperation," he said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from right, meets with Wang Huning, fifth from left, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and other members of a visiting Chinese delegation in Pyongyang, Thursday. Courtesy of North Korea's state media Korean Central Television

Such interactions also increase the likelihood of another summit between North Korean leader Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Hong.

"The possibility of another North Korea-Russia summit is fairly high," he said. "Even if summit diplomacy does not happen immediately, high-level communication between the two countries is very likely to continue expanding."

At the same time, Hong said Pyongyang's renewed engagement with Beijing serves broader strategic objectives beyond commemorating the 65th anniversary of the bilateral friendship treaty.

He pointed to China's growing desire to maintain influence over North Korea, particularly amid concerns that Pyongyang could eventually resume direct engagement with Washington in ways that might undermine Beijing's interests.

"North Korea is trying to maximize its strategic position by fully utilizing both its relationship with China and its partnership with Russia," Hong said.

"These parallel bilateral exchanges demonstrate how Pyongyang is trying to maximize its own interests by utilizing both countries within the broader framework of balancing against the United States in Northeast Asia."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands after a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang, June 19, 2024. AFP-Yonhap

Cho Han-bum, another senior research fellow at KINU, described the diplomatic push as an extension of what he called Kim's "new Cold War diplomacy."

"We need to understand this through the lens of North Korea's new Cold War diplomacy," Cho told The Korea Times. "Just as North Korea belonged to the communist bloc during the Cold War, it is once again strengthening ties with China and Russia to increase its leverage against the United States."

Cho argued that the strategy gained momentum after the collapse of the 2019 Hanoi summit between Kim and then-U.S. President Donald Trump and was further reinforced by Russia's war against Ukraine.

"The war dramatically accelerated North Korea-Russia relations, culminating in what is effectively a military alliance through the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed in June 2024," he said.

While Russia has become North Korea's principal military partner, Beijing remains indispensable because of its overwhelming economic importance.

"North Korea cannot abandon China because its economy remains almost entirely dependent on it," Cho said, explaining that Pyongyang has long pursued a form of balancing diplomacy by maintaining relationships with multiple major powers rather than depending exclusively on one.

The strategy, analysts say, allows North Korea to simultaneously strengthen its bargaining position with Beijing and Moscow, while preserving the option of future negotiations with the United States, placing Pyongyang in what it sees as its strongest strategic position amid an increasingly polarized regional order.

"Kim Jong-un has not abandoned the possibility of engaging the United States. But because there is no clear timeline from the (Donald) Trump administration, North Korea is focusing on this new Cold War diplomacy while waiting for Washington to return with terms more favorable to Pyongyang."