Trump cannot denuclearize NK, says Middle East expert

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow of the Middle East Institute, speaks during a session titled "The Post-War Future of Middle East Peacebuilding" during the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity in Seogwipo, Jeju Island, June 25. Courtesy of Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow of the Middle East Institute, said U.S. President Donald Trump will not be able to denuclearize North Korea as Pyongyang is already a “nuclear state.”

Speaking in an exclusive interview with The Korea Times on the sidelines of the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity on June 25, Vatanka said Washington would risk a war if it wants to denuclearize Pyongyang.

“Trump cannot denuclearize North Korea because North Korea is already a nuclear weapon state, unless you want to take a chance and risk major war,” said Vatanka, a Middle East expert and founding director of the Iran program at the Washington-based think tank. He joined the forum as a speaker during a session titled “The Post-War Future of Middle East Peacebuilding.”

The Middle East and Iran expert emphasized that North Korea’s nuclear program is now irreversible, unlike Iran’s program, which remains controllable amid ongoing negotiations with the U.S. to halt its nuclear ambitions and end the war.

“I don't know how many (nuclear weapons) they (North Korea) have. They have probably many dozens. Iran is not a nuclear weapon state, so there is still time to shape their calculations to say ‘you don't want to do this, because look at North Korea — it has had nuclear weapons, but it's so poor, its country is not in good shape,’” he said, adding “North Korea is a very closed, secretive society, and it was hard for the Clinton administration, the Bush administration to stop their nuclear weapons program.”

The remarks were made before anticipated talks between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. All eyes were on whether the Trump administration could come up with a meaningful denuclearization talk with the Kim administration. Trump has expressed a willingness to engage with Kim, while North Korean state media has remained notably muted in its criticism of the Trump administration, a potential signal it is willing to resume talks with Trump.

Since their 2019 summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, ended without a denuclearization deal, Pyongyang has steadily expanded its nuclear capabilities, seeking international recognition as a nuclear-armed state to ensure regime survival.

Vatanka expected that a summit between Kim and Trump would eventually take place, even if it is currently not a top priority for either leader.

“I would not rule out renewed diplomacy with Pyongyang during the final two years of his presidency. Trump has consistently shown an interest in pursuing high-profile diplomatic initiatives, and North Korea remains one of the few areas where he may believe he can pursue a legacy-defining breakthrough if circumstances become favorable.”

Regarding Europe and Seoul’s potential sale of weapons to Iran, he stressed that while it offers “quick money,” it ultimately drives further bloodshed.

“If you concentrate on selling weapons, you fuel conflict … This business of making money from selling weapons is exactly what's wrong with policies. Europeans, like the French, they should be ashamed of themselves for selling weapons. They should send factories that create jobs for the young. They should create opportunities for work for the Middle Eastern youth, not give them weapons, so they kill each other, because that is not only bad for the Middle East, it's also bad for Europe or Asia.”