North Korea talks unlikely as Trump-Xi summit stalls, wars rage, analysts say

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, meets with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the North Korean side of the border at the village of Panmunjeom in the Korea's Demilitarized Zone, June 30, 2019. AP-Yonhap

With U.S. President Donald Trump's planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly pushed back amid the wars in Iran and Ukraine, analysts say a potential summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is unlikely to materialize soon, though they stop short of ruling it out entirely.

Trump is planning to push his China visit to May as the Iran conflict intensifies, but Seoul is pressing ahead with its efforts to broker renewed dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. The moves have fueled speculation that a Trump-Kim meeting could be back on the table.

Unification Minister Chung Dong-young on Monday urged North Korea not to miss the opportunity, after Trump expressed interest in meeting with Kim during a White House sit-down with South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok Friday.

Most analysts, however, said the U.S. has little bandwidth for North Korea diplomacy right now amid global geopolitical uncertainties.

“There is no room for Trump to discuss the talks between the North and the U.S. amid the Iran war,” Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, told The Korea Times Tuesday, adding the lingering war is prompting uncertainties.

"It seems that for the U.S., there is no benefit from holding the talks with Xi and therefore North Korea, which is cooperating with China and Russia, would find it hard to act independently without talking to the two countries."

He said the U.S. may be motivated to initiate talks to show some visible outcomes to the public before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. The North would likely only join the talks if the U.S. accepted Pyongyang’s status as a nuclear-armed state.

U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok pose at the White House, Friday. Courtesy of Prime Minister's Office

Another analyst said for the North, the key condition for talks to happen is the end of the Russia-Ukraine war.

"If North Korea holds talks with the U.S. while participating in the Russia-Ukraine war, Kim Jong-un won't have any excuses for (Russian President Vladirmir) Putin,” said Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies.

Once the war concludes, Russia will no longer be in a position to support Pyongyang, leaving North Korea to seek its own diplomatic breakthroughs, potentially through Washington.

Yang said both sides still have reasons to talk. North Korea seeks international recognition as a nuclear-armed state and as a major regional power, goals a summit with Trump could advance. For Trump, a diplomatic turning point with Kim would burnish his legacy and provide political capital heading into the midterms and, some have noted, strengthen his case for a Nobel Peace Prize.