Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
US strike on Iran dampens prospects for Trump-Kim talks in April
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gives a speech during his visit to Sangwon Cement Complex in North Hwanghae Province, Sunday, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
Khamenei's death likely to reinforce Kim Jong-un's push for nuclear arms
The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli military operation is likely to cast a shadow over efforts to revive diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang, analysts said Monday, as Pyongyang's trust in U.S. President Donald Trump appears to be eroding amid heightened security concerns.
The attack, which came amid stalled nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, is expected to reinforce North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's long-held belief that nuclear weapons are the ultimate guarantee of his regime's survival.
After the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Saturday (local time), Trump wrote on social media hours later that the Iranian leader had been killed in the operation, declaring, "Khamenei, one of the most evil people in history, is dead." The Iranian government later confirmed his death.
The latest episode, which came two months after the U.S. government's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, appears to have unsettled Kim.
This is likely to lower the chances of a possible Trump-Kim meeting, which some had hoped would take place around the U.S. president's planned visit to Beijing from March 31 to April 2.
U.S. President Donald Trump waves to the media after landing at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, Sunday (local time). AFP-Yonhap
"The likelihood that North Korea will trust the sincerity of Washington's offer of talks without preconditions is close to zero," said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies. "The bold strike by the U.S. in Iran may drive Kim Jong-un to double down on advancing his nuclear forces rather than returning to the negotiating table."
The events in Iran could also push Kim to distance himself further from South Korea, despite repeated overtures from Seoul. In his March 1 Independence Movement Day address Sunday, President Lee Jae Myung reiterated that his government would "respect North Korea’s political system and refrain from hostile actions."
"Although the Lee administration has made clear it has no interest in attacking the North or seeking regime change, the lesson Pyongyang likely draws from these strikes is to avoid interactions with Seoul that could weaken the Kim regime," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
"He will see footage of Iranians celebrating in the streets and hear about expatriates seeking a role in political transition. He will no doubt take steps to avoid a similar fate for his family and North Korea."
Still, not all analysts agree that diplomacy is off the table.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said the crisis in Iran could paradoxically increase the chances of renewed talks between North Korea and the U.S.
Emergency responders arrive at the scene of a fatal Iranian airstrike in Beit Shemesh, Israel, Sunday, launched in retaliation to attacks by the U.S. and Israel. Reuters-Yonhap
"The possibility of dialogue may actually have grown," Park said. "Watching what happened in Iran, Kim may be thinking that he cannot ignore or reject Trump’s repeated overtures for talks indefinitely."
Park said that while nuclear weapons remain central to North Korea's security strategy, the episode may also reinforce the idea in the Kim regime that tensions ultimately need to be managed through dialogue.
North Korea strongly condemned the U.S. operation in Iran, calling it evidence of Washington's "hegemonic and gangster-like nature."
"The DPRK condemns in the strongest terms the shameless rogue act of the U.S. and Israel, which put their domestic law above recognized international law and do not hesitate to abuse military force to realize their selfish and hegemonic ambitions," the regime's foreign ministry spokesperson said in a statement carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Sunday. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.