N. Korea unlikely to respond to request for joint probe into drone incident

Gaepung County, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea, is seen from an observatory in Incheon, Sunday. Yonhap

North Korea is unlikely to respond to calls from South Korea for a joint investigation into an alleged drone incursion, analysts said, dimming hopes in Seoul that the incident could help break a deadlock in inter-Korean relations.

Pyongyang has accused South Korea of sending drones into its territory on two occasions — once in September last year and again on Jan. 4 — claims Seoul's military immediately denied. South Korean officials said they will continue efforts to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

On Monday, South Korea's police and military launched a joint task force of about 30 members to investigate the incident. The move came two days after President Lee Jae Myung ordered a swift probe, warning that any drone flights carried out by civilians pose a serious threat to national security.

Later in the day, Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back said he was considering proposing a joint investigation with North Korea.

"I am considering proposing a joint inter-Korean investigation through the United Nations Command," Ahn said during a National Assembly session, adding that at this stage, authorities believe the drone was likely sent by civilians.

The UNC, which oversees the Armistice Agreement between the two Koreas, declined to comment when asked by The Korea Times whether it plans to launch an investigation into the latest drone incident.

South Korea's defense ministry said a joint probe with the North has not been formally proposed to Pyongyang, but remains a possible option depending on the outcome of the ongoing police investigation.

"The facts need to be clarified through the investigation before we can review our next steps," defense ministry spokesperson Chung Binna said during a briefing, when asked about the possibility of the joint probe.

A warning sign in a border area in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, alerts visitors that the area is designated as a no-drone zone, Sunday. Yonhap

Rep. Park Jie-won of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, a former director of the National Intelligence Service, urged Seoul to turn the situation into an opportunity for dialogue by pursuing a joint investigation with Pyongyang.

"In principle, the two Koreas should conduct a joint investigation to determine the facts, which would be necessary to prevent a recurrence," he said in a radio interview.

The calls for a joint probe have also been fueled by questions over whether North Korea's claims match the evidence it has released, including photos of the drone debris and flight records.

Some critics have pointed out that discrepancies between the materials released by South Korea and Pyongyang’s assertions suggest an investigation conducted solely by Seoul may be insufficient to fully clarify the facts.

Analysts, however, were skeptical that Pyongyang would cooperate.

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said it was highly unlikely that North Korea would agree to a joint investigation.

"North Korea's exclusion of South Korea is not a short-term decision but part of its long-term policy line. The regime will use the drone incident to justify its hostility toward South Korea in its propaganda to the public," he said.

In December 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un described ties with Seoul as those between "two states hostile to each other," and has since largely ignored Seoul's proposals for talks.

Pyongyang has also remained silent on South Korea’s request for military talks made in November last year to clarify issues related to the Military Demarcation Line along the border.

The Ministry of Unification confirmed Monday that the North has not responded to the hotline phone.