What options does Seoul have to bring NK to negotiating table?

South Korean and U.S. troops build a floating bridge during a joint river-crossing exercise at a training site along the Namhan River in Yeoju, Gyeonggi Province, Nov. 20. Yonhap

South Korea’s options for coaxing North Korea back to the negotiating table appear to be narrowing after its national security adviser ruled out scaling back joint military exercises with the United States — a step some officials had floated as a possible incentive for talks.

Diplomatic observers said Monday that Seoul’s remaining options include reviving an inter-Korean military agreement with Pyongyang intended to reduce tensions along the border, and bolstering its diplomatic leverage with China and Russia, the North’s traditional patrons.

At a press conference the previous day, National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac said scaling back annual South Korea-U.S. joint exercises to revive inter-Korean dialogue was not under consideration. His remarks pushed back against suggestions from senior officials, including Unification Minister Chung Dong-young, who hoped that such a move could help draw Pyongyang back to the table.

"We have no specific comment on the national security adviser's remarks. However, the joint drills carry important implications not only for military affairs but also for inter-Korean relations and the broader situation on the Korean Peninsula," unification ministry spokesperson Yoon Min-ho said at a briefing Monday.

Kevin Kim, the acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, said the same day that Seoul has reaffirmed the importance of close coordination on joint military exercises.

Citing Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back’s earlier remark that regular drills are the military’s "lifeline," Kim said, "That is our expectation moving forward."

North Korea has long condemned large-scale joint drills as "rehearsals for invasion," and their suspension was a key factor in creating conditions for negotiations under the Moon Jae-in administration.

Since taking office in June, Lee's administration has repeatedly signaled a willingness to resume talks with the nuclear-armed North, rolling back much of his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol's hawkish policy toward Pyongyang.

The Kim Jong-un regime, however, has remained unresponsive, leaving officials in Seoul struggling to break the stalemate.

Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said ruling out a reduction in the joint drills was a reasonable decision. He said scaling them down was unlikely to serve as a meaningful catalyst to draw North Korea back to the table given the current regional security environment.

"From Washington’s perspective, the regular joint drills serve not only to deter North Korea but also to underscore the alliance's strategic role in the Indo-Pacific against China. That makes it difficult for South Korea to scale them back unilaterally," Doo told The Korea Times.

From left, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are seen ahead of a military parade in Beijing, Sept. 3. TASS-Yonhap

With military options constrained, he said, the South Korean government now faces growing pressure to pursue diplomacy with surrounding powers rather than relying solely on inter-Korean initiatives.

"China and Russia, as North Korea’s traditional backers, are key players in breaking the current stalemate," he said. "Engagement with Russia to encourage it to play a role in shifting North Korea's stance, while also drawing China into a more constructive role, is becoming more important."

In recent months, North Korea has drawn closer to China and Russia. Kim attended a large-scale military parade in Beijing in September, where he appeared side by side with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in a prominent display of alignment.

Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, said reviving the inter-Korean military agreement aimed at preventing border clashes could serve as an initial step toward renewed talks.

"Restoring the agreement could be a preemptive gesture toward pursuing peace with the North and a first step in rebuilding trust," Yang said.

In 2024, South Korea suspended the 2018 Sept. 19 military agreement, formally known as the Comprehensive Military Agreement, citing how North Korea repeatedly sent trash-filled balloons over the border. The pact, signed by then-President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, established buffer zones along the border by banning hostile acts on land, at sea and in the air.