S. Korea wary of Kim Jong-un's multilateral diplomatic debut in Beijing

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends an opening ceremony of a sea farming site in Nakwon, South Hamgyong Province, Saturday, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is expected to appear among world leaders for the first time at China’s major military parade on Wednesday, a move analysts say could pose challenges to Seoul’s efforts to engage Pyongyang.

While Seoul sees little chance that its delegation, led by National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik, will meet Kim at the parade, some analysts say the North Korean leader’s debut on the multilateral stage could signal a possible opening for dialogue with the United States.

Kim has been invited by Chinese President Xi Jinping to attend the Sept. 3 military parade, which commemorates the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, a date China observes as its victory over Japan.

The North Korean leader will be among 26 foreign leaders attending, including Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The invitation and attendance were announced by China and North Korea last Thursday. The upcoming event marks the first time Kim joins a large group of world leaders on a multilateral stage since taking power in 2011.

Multilateral diplomacy is unusual for Kim, as it was for his predecessors, who typically favored bilateral meetings reinforcing their image as independent and sovereign leaders.

Details of Kim’s travel plans remain undisclosed, and it is unclear when or how he will leave Pyongyang for Beijing, though it is believed he may travel aboard his armored train.

A Kremlin official said that at the parade, Putin will sit to the right of Xi, with Kim on the other side of the Chinese leader. If the arrangement holds, it would be seen as a show of solidarity against the United States, even as President Donald Trump has expressed interest in resuming talks with the North Korean leader.

Kim's appearance in the high-stakes diplomatic event comes amid North Korea's continued reluctance to engage with Seoul, despite overtures from the Lee Jae Myung administration.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, and Russian President Vladimir Putin talk as they watch the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, May 9, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. AP-Yonhap

However, some analysts in Seoul cautiously predict that the trip could serve as a prelude to the North's renewed diplomacy with Washington.

"Kim's visit to China may serve as a chance to coordinate its positions with Beijing and Moscow ahead of a possible North Korea-U.S. summit that could take place on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, where Trump is expected to attend," said Cheong Seong-chang, vice president of the Seoul-based think tank Sejong Institute.

Cheong noted a pattern in Kim's previous trips to China ahead of U.S.-North Korea negotiations during Trump's first term. Between 2018 and 2019, he made four visits to China, with his first and fourth trips occurring just before summits with the U.S. leader.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the Lee administration's prospects for engaging with the North may depend on the outcome of Kim's China visit.

"We do not know the true intention yet behind Kim's acceptance of China's invitation, which is unprecedented," Yang said.

"This could be the start of North Korea stepping onto the global stage and potentially resuming diplomacy with Washington — or it could signal a return to its traditional allies, China and Russia. We will have to see whether this event strengthens trilateral ties among North Korea, China and Russia aimed at countering South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation."

He added that the developments could have significant implications for Seoul, potentially giving Kim greater leverage over affairs on the Korean Peninsula and strengthening his position in any future nuclear negotiations.

Sharing the stage with world leaders Putin and Xi, along with other prominent figures, represents a diplomatic milestone for Kim, breaking North Korea’s isolation and raising Pyongyang’s profile as the war in Ukraine moves toward a potential resolution.

"South Korea should carefully manage its relations with Russia and China — both increasingly becoming influential in addressing North Korea — rather than relying solely on the U.S. for denuclearization talks," the professor said.

Houses in Kaepung County, North Hwanghae Province, North Korea, are seen from a South Korean observatory in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Sunday. Yonhap

Meanwhile, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said the chances remain low that Seoul's delegation will engage with Kim in Beijing.

"We have prepared thoroughly in case Speaker Woo and Chairman Kim meet, providing the speaker with all necessary materials and briefings. But as of now, the chances are not very promising," Cho said Sunday in an interview with KBS.

The top diplomat also noted that Kim's attendance "could in some respects serve as a step for North Korea to reengage with the international community."

But he cautioned that the visit should not be interpreted as laying the groundwork for immediate Pyongyang-Washington talks. "Diplomacy must always be grounded in reality, so we also need to prepare for the possibility that things could go in the opposite direction," he said.