APEC summit in S. Korea fuels speculation for possible Kim-Trump meeting

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands across the military demarcation line at the truce village of Panmunjeom, June 30, 2019. Yonhap

Speculation is mounting over the possibility of a high-stakes summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on the sidelines of the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in South Korea this autumn, rekindling memories of their earlier diplomatic encounters that once captivated global attention.

Trump is expected to attend the APEC summit scheduled for Oct. 31 to Nov. 1 in the southeastern city of Gyeongju. While no formal plans for a meeting with Kim have been announced, analysts say shifting geopolitical dynamics and the leaders’ history of personal diplomacy have opened a narrow but significant window for talks.

Speculation intensified following the United States’ late June airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which heightened Pyongyang’s concerns about its own strategic vulnerabilities.

Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that while a summit remains possible, it would take place “under a different context,” with Kim likely prioritizing security guarantees over denuclearization.

“These strikes could open up the possibility of another meeting at Panmunjeom,” Cha said, referring to the truce village in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) where Trump and Kim met in 2019. “Kim may see Trump as someone who previously offered security guarantees that no one else has.”

Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, echoed this possibility, noting that Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy style — as seen during his impromptu meeting with Kim at the DMZ in June 2019 — makes such a scenario plausible.

“If Trump comes to APEC, he might very well say, ‘Since I’m here, let’s meet Kim,’” Park said. “That’s how it happened in 2019 — with Trump tweeting an invitation just 36 hours ahead of time.”

However, Park cautioned that Kim may not respond the same way this time.

“Unlike 2018 and 2019, Pyongyang no longer appears eager for dialogue with Washington,” he said. “Kim Jong-un has repeatedly emphasized alignment with anti-U.S. states like Russia, China and Iran, indicating a shift toward a new Cold War bloc.”

Cheong Seong-chang, acting vice president at the Sejong Institute, agreed that Kim is unlikely to accept a spontaneous meeting this time unless preconditions are met.

“Kim will likely demand at least a suspension of joint military exercises and U.S. strategic asset deployments before considering any talks,” Cheong said. “Unlike in the past, North Korea is focused on institutionalizing hostility with the U.S., not resolving it through top-down diplomacy.”

Trump, who frequently touts his personal rapport with Kim despite North Korea’s nuclear provocations, said on June 27, “Somebody’s saying there's a potential conflict — I think we’ll work it out.”

While Trump’s spokesperson has not confirmed any outreach to Pyongyang, Trump has historically preferred one-on-one, top-down negotiations — a style that appeals to North Korean leadership.

Despite Trump’s openness, North Korea has not responded publicly to any overtures. In February, the country’s foreign ministry denounced U.S. efforts to revive denuclearization talks as “absurd” and reaffirmed that it would never give up its nuclear arsenal.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and U.S. President Donald Trump pose ahead of their summit in Singapore, June 12, 2018. Yonhap

A potential Trump-Kim meeting in South Korea would carry significant symbolic weight. It would mark the first summit between the two leaders on South Korean soil and could be held at a site rich in inter-Korean significance, such as Panmunjom or Gaeseong, a city just north of the border.

For Trump, a meeting with Kim could enhance his profile as a key player in global diplomacy. For Kim, it would offer international visibility, a platform to advocate for sanctions relief and an opportunity to revive stalled talks on more favorable terms.

Trump and Kim held three meetings between 2018 and 2019, beginning with a historic summit in Singapore. That encounter yielded a vague joint statement committing to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but lacked concrete steps or verification measures.

Their second meeting, held in Hanoi in February 2019, collapsed abruptly when the two leaders failed to reach a deal. North Korea demanded broad sanctions relief in exchange for partial denuclearization steps, while the U.S. insisted on a comprehensive dismantling of Pyongyang’s nuclear infrastructure.

Despite the failure, Trump met Kim again at Panmunjom in June 2019, becoming the first sitting U.S. president to step into North Korea. But no further progress followed. Talks between working-level negotiators broke down later that year, and North Korea declared an end to dialogue with the U.S.

Since then, Pyongyang has strengthened its ties with Moscow and Beijing, launched multiple ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. sanctions and declared itself a permanent nuclear state in its constitution.

Looking ahead, Park said a future summit — even if not during the APEC event — cannot be ruled out entirely, especially given Trump’s diplomatic style.

“Trump is highly unpredictable,” he said. “If the Iran strikes remind Kim of ‘fire and fury’ days, he may feel pressured to respond diplomatically — but not without conditions like halting U.S.-South Korea joint military drills or suspending deployment of strategic assets.”

Still, Park warned that any summit is unlikely to yield meaningful outcomes.

“In 2018, there was genuine interest from Pyongyang in improving ties with the U.S. and engaging in the peace process. That’s not the case anymore,” he said. “Today, North Korea wants to maintain hostility with Washington while reinforcing its ties with other anti-U.S. powers. The context is entirely different.”

He added that if a U.S.-North Korea summit does not materialize at APEC, it could be delayed, depending on how Trump chooses to prioritize other foreign policy challenges, such as China, Gaza or Ukraine.

“At the earliest, maybe next year — but only after other agenda items are dealt with,” he said.