North Korea on edge after US strikes Iran

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, center, gestures as he inspects nuclear warheads at an unidentified location in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency, March 28, 2023. Yonhap

The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities are reverberating in Pyongyang, where officials see the attacks as a possible warning that President Donald Trump might one day consider similar military action against North Korea’s own nuclear program.

Although many analysts deem a preemptive U.S. strike on the North unlikely, citing its more advanced nuclear arsenal and the region’s volatile geopolitics, the Iran episode could still force Pyongyang to rethink its strategic assumptions.

On Monday, North Korea’s state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun reported on the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, quoting statements from Russia and Iran without offering commentary of its own.

Later in the day, the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a statement from a foreign ministry spokesperson condemning the U.S. airstrikes on Iran that occurred early Saturday.

"The Democratic People's Republic of Korea strongly denounces the attack on Iran by the U.S., which severely violated the U.N. Charter and violently trampled down the territorial integrity and security interests of a sovereign state," the spokesperson said, according to KCNA.

Although the statement strongly criticized the U.S., it came in the form of a spokesperson’s response to a journalist’s question — showing a relatively restrained tone compared to past declarations from higher-ranking officials.

Analysts say the muted response reflects North Korea's efforts to avoid being linked directly to Iran.

"The Kim Jong-un regime is very alarmed by what's happening in Iran," said Doo Jin-ho, director of the Eurasia Research Center, a Seoul-based think tank.

"Pyongyang may view the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities as a decisive moment that underscores the need to secure stronger guarantees for its own safety by deepening its ties with Russia," he said.

This satellite photo from Sept. 18, 2021, from Planet Labs shows a uranium enrichment plant at North Korea's main Yongbyon nuclear complex. AP-Yonhap

Trump's surprise decision to launch a direct strike on Iran's nuclear infrastructure marked a sharp departure from the noninterventionist stance. The operation has fueled speculation that key North Korean nuclear sites, including the complex at Yongbyon, could become potential U.S. targets if tensions continue to escalate.

The Yongbyon site, considered the center of North Korea’s nuclear program, contains multiple nuclear fuel production facilities, including a 5-megawatt reactor used to produce plutonium. The nuclear complex was a key element in the denuclearization talks between Trump and Kim during Trump's first term, though negotiations ultimately collapsed.

Still, many experts are skeptical that Trump would gamble on an airstrike against North Korea.

"With Russia now formally backing North Korea under a mutual defense pact, the likelihood of a U.S. preemptive strike is extremely low, considering the consequences that will follow," Doo said.

The mutual defense treaty, signed in June 2024, requires both nations to assist each other if attacked, a clause that significantly complicates the prospects of direct U.S. military engagement with Pyongyang.

Experts warn that the window to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program by force may have already closed.

Unlike Iran, which the International Atomic Energy Agency says does not currently possess nuclear weapons, North Korea is believed to have between 20 and 50 warheads and has conducted six nuclear tests, the most recent in 2017.

"Pyongyang’s nuclear program is much more advanced, with weapons possibly ready to launch on multiple delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.

"The Kim regime can threaten the U.S. homeland, and Seoul is within range of many North Korean weapons of various types."

The professor also noted that China and Russia are far better positioned to support Pyongyang than they are to assist Tehran.

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak from the East Room of the White House in Washington, Saturday (local time), after the U.S. military struck three Iranian nuclear and military sites. AP-Yonhap

Meanwhile, experts say the Trump administration’s attack on Iran has reduced the chances of renewed Washington-Pyongyang engagement.

The strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities may mark a fundamental shift in Trump’s foreign policy, highlighting a greater readiness to use military force and exert pressure on nuclear-capable states.

From Kim’s perspective, Trump now appears increasingly unpredictable as a negotiating partner. Although the U.S. president initially suggested a two-week window to decide whether to intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, he authorized the strike on Tehran just a day later.

"It remains unclear when Trump might turn his attention to Pyongyang," Doo said. "But when he does, he may not be as conciliatory and instead choose a strategy of maximum pressure."