North Korea breaks pattern, stays calm after South Korea-US joint drills

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversees a test-firing of a 240mm multiple rocket launcher with a new guidance system, Aug. 27, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap

North Korea has been notably restrained in its response to a recent major joint military exercise between South Korea and the United States, marking a significant departure from its usual pattern of provocation, according to military experts, Sunday.

The annual South Korea-U.S. Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise, which concluded last Thursday after an 11-day run, showcased a marked increase in combined field training exercises (FTX). Plus, a civil defense drill led by the South Korean government included a new scenario simulating a North Korean nuclear attack for the first time.

Yet, in contrast to previous years, North Korea refrained from military provocations in response to the UFS as of Sunday. Typically, Pyongyang has reacted strongly to the annual summer military exercise, denouncing it as a “war rehearsal” and responding with major military actions.

Last year, North Korea launched several ballistic missiles during the UFS, claiming they were part of a tactical nuclear strike drill simulating “scorched-earth” attacks on major South Korean command centers.

There was speculation that North Korea might react similarly this year, particularly after it condemned the UFS as the "most provocative war drills in the region."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversaw tests of suicide drones on Aug. 24, and attended the test-launch of a 240mm multiple rocket launcher with a new guidance system last Tuesday, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

However, Kim did not address the UFS or issue threats toward Seoul or Washington during these tests.

Experts attribute North Korea’s unusual restraint in both verbal and military threats to the severe flooding that devastated the northwestern region in mid-July. The floods caused extensive damage to farmland and displaced around 15,000 people, prompting the regime to focus on disaster recovery efforts.

“The regime’s focus on flood recovery efforts, which has mobilized military personnel, may have shifted attention away from external issues. Preoccupied with domestic matters, a tit-for-tat response to our drills may have not been a top priority for the North's leadership,” said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.

Recent state media coverage has highlighted Kim Jong-un’s visits to flood-affected areas to supervise rehabilitation efforts, as well as his concern for displaced children and the elderly who have been relocated to Pyongyang.

Additionally, the silence may reflect the Kim regime's reluctance to deal with South Korea.

North Korea has yet to respond to Seoul's recent proposal of a “unification doctrine” introduced by President Yoon Suk Yeol on Aug. 15 Liberation Day.

Yoon proposed setting up working-level consultations to initiate dialogue between the two Koreas. However, critics say a response from the North is unlikely, as another key aspect of the doctrine involves a vigorous campaign to highlight human rights abuses in North Korea — a topic that infuriates the Kim regime.

“North Korea may be focusing more on the upcoming U.S. presidential election rather than the military exercises on the Korean Peninsula. With uncertainties surrounding the U.S. elections, Kim could be carefully considering when and how to engage in military provocations to influence the situation in his favor,” Yang said.