By Yi Whan-woo
North Korea is attempting to disrupt international sanctions against its nuclear program, taking advantage of a new Cold War rivalry stemming from a joint decision by Seoul and Washington to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Monday.
“North Korea is eager to ensure its strategic value by separating its two Cold War allies ― China and Russia ― from other members of the six-party talks,” said An Chan-il head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies in Seoul.
He claimed North Korea is deliberately underscoring Seoul’s security alliance with Washington and their diplomatic relations with Tokyo in an attempt to trigger conflict in the region.
On July 11, Pyongyang said the latest decision to deploy THAAD, an advanced U.S. missile system against North Korean missile attacks, is part of a scheme to “form an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization led by allied forces of the U.S. and South Korea against other regional powers.”
Concerning the vice-ministerial talks among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan last week, North Korea denounced them Sunday as “an occasion in which Washington revealed its ambitions for regional hegemony through the establishment of a missile defense system and trilateral military alliance.”
“It can be said North Korea is using THAAD as a reason to form a counter-military alliance against the U.S.-led allies,” Kwak Jin-o, a senior researcher at the Northeast Asian History Foundation said.
The analysts were divided over whether North Korea’s possible military provocations may further facilitate a regional confrontation led by the U.S and China.
“China may loosen the noose on North Korea even if there is a fifth nuclear test, launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or a submarine-launched ballistic missile,” An said.
Park Young-ho, a senior researcher of the Korea Institute for National Unification said such provocations will “only justify the deployment of THAAD” and that China will be against them.
To abate concerns over a possible new Cold War, some experts suggested that South Korea should show that its alliance with the U.S. and Japan does not comply with Washington’s strategy to contain a rising China.
“The U.S. certainly wants to capitalize on the three-way alliance to handle various regional security issues, such as the South China Sea dispute,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a U.S. expert at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “But South Korea must ensure that its purpose of joining such an alliance is to deter North Korea’s military threats exclusively. Otherwise, its relations with China and Russia will deteriorate.”
Park Won-gon, a professor of international relations at Handong University, said South Korea should refrain from holding joint foreign ministerial talks with the U.S. and Japan on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Laos next week.
The foreign ministers of the three nations held a joint meeting during last year’s ARF, an annual multinational security dialogue.
North Korea, China and Russia are also members of ARF.