By Yi Whan-woo
Activities detected at North Korea’s main nuclear complex in Yongbyon are increasing speculation that Pyongyang is preparing to conduct a fifth nuclear test.
Citing satellite images showing exhaust plumes that were uploaded Monday by 38 North ― a U.S. website on North Korea issues ― analysts here said Tuesday that Pyongyang may be taking preparatory steps for another nuclear test.
The analysts predict that the fifth test could be conducted on the occasion of the seventh Workers’ Party Congress, a rare congressional meeting scheduled to take place in May for the first time since 1980.
“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un apparently wants to run a big event to publicize his leadership at the Workers’ Party Congress,” said An Chan-il, head of the World Institute for North Korea Studies. “And it’s possible North Korea could test a nuclear bomb using one of the three materials ― plutonium, uranium or hydrogen.”
During the past five weeks, exhaust plumes have been seen two or three times at a radiochemical laboratory complex in Yongbyon, according to 38 North. The website is operated by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
The complex is where North Korea is believed to separate weapons-grade plutonium from nuclear reactor waste. Such plumes “have rarely been seen there and none have been observed on any examined imagery this past winter,” the website stated.
It did not specify whether the exhaust plumes indicate that reprocessing of additional plutonium is underway or will be in the near future.
Yang Uk, a senior research fellow at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, added that the “Possibility of a fifth nuclear test should never be ruled out.”
He cited a series of incidents in the past weeks following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test conducted on Jan. 6, and a subsequent rocket-launch using ballistic missile technology on Feb. 7.
In testimony given before the Senate on Feb. 9, U.S. National Intelligence Director John Clapper said North Korea “could begin to recover plutonium from the reactor’s spent fuel within a matter of weeks to months.”
The Ministry of Unification, which manages inter-Korean affairs, warned on March 21 that North Korea is capable of conducting an additional nuclear test at any time.
Pyongyang has also threatened to conduct another test of nuclear warheads and ballistic missiles.
Some analysts have speculated that the Kim Jong-un regime may have deliberately emitted exhaust plumes from its radiochemical laboratory complex for detection by a U.S. reconnaissance satellite.
They added the emissions should be regarded as “part of a protest against the U.N. Security Council (UNSC)’s latest sanctions on North Korea and also a sign of Pyongyang’s pursuance of nuclear ambitions regardless of international pressure.”
The UNSC adopted Resolution 2270 on March 2 in response to the military state’s fourth nuclear test and a long-range rocket launch between January and February.
“It may be too early to relate any suspicious activities in Yongbyon to a nuclear test,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University.
He pointed out that all past four nuclear tests occurred in Punggye-ri, North Hamgyong Province, located approximately 70 kilometers away from Yongbyon in North Pyongan Province.
“It would make sense to say that the internationally-isolated North is making a gesture for talks while showing its anger toward the adoption of the U.N. resolution,” he added.