`Large-scale war unlikely'

Fishermen race through the northernmost fishing ground in Gangwon Province, Tuesday. The fishing ground sits close to the Northern Limit Line, the maritime border between the two Koreas, and will remain open through November. / Yonhap

More NK provocations expected: experts

By Kim Tae-gyu

No full-scale war is likely on the Korean Peninsula despite an exchange of fire between the two Koreas, analysts said Tuesday.

“Experience tells us that the North is not likely to wage war but more provocations of limited scale can’t be ruled out,” said Prof. Yoo Ho-yeol at Korea University, pointing out the Northern Limit Line (NLL) is where this is most likely.

“The North’s elite is also well aware that full-scale war would end up destroying their power base.”

On Monday, North Korea fired more than 100 artillery shells across the NLL, the de-facto maritime border in the West Sea that it refuses to acknowledge, prompting South Korea to strike back.

Two days earlier, the belligerent regime threatened to carry out a new-type of nuclear test, which would be its fourth overall, to protest the U.N. condemnation for its ballistic missile launches last week.

Shin In-kyun, chief of the Korea Defense Network, said that Pyongyang would not try to test the alliance between Seoul and Washington at all.

“Things are like all bark and no bite. North Korea will not attack South Korea that is well prepared to pay back any provocations,” said Shin who is known as a conservative analyst.

“You should remember the combined readiness of Seoul and Washington for Pyongyang’s aggressions. The North will not make provocations on purpose, though we cannot rule out the possibility of accidental ones.”

In March 2013, ROK Joint Chief of Staff and U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) agreed that the U.S. will automatically engage with the North over a limited-scale provocation, if requested.

Before then, South Korea was supposed to deal with attacks by North Korea on its own, and if necessary, it could have asked for the help of the USFK, which could have refused to give assistance.

Used to Pyongyang’s brinkmanship, few Korean citizens appear to worry about the time-honored go-to strategy of the communist neighbor.

“I recently shopped in Myeong-dong and saw so many Chinese there. I don’t think that North Korea would attack South Korea that attracts a lot of Chinese throughout the year,” said a 40-year-old male office worker in Seoul.

“Pyongyang would not want to lose its only benefactor, Beijing, by hurting Chinese people living in or visiting Korea.”

An employee in a foreign-invested company in Seoul said that expats were not worried.

“In 2010, foreigners in our companies appeared swayed by the North Korean threats. Back then, they checked the emergency evacuation plan,” she said. “There are no such signs now.”

In 2010, four people including two civilians were killed due to the North’s shelling of the South’s border island of Yeonpyeong.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang rebuffed President Park Geun-hye’s recent package of proposal called the “Dresden Doctrine” that was announced last week in the German city during her state visit to the European country.

She offered colossal aid and joint projects to prepare for unification such as constructing multi-farming complexes and investing in social infrastructure in the impoverished country.

“(Park) came up with all the odds and ends to suggest a so-called unification offer,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency said Monday. The state-run media outlet also lashed out at Park for criticizing it.

It also interviewed North Korea residents who demonstrated antipathy toward the Dresden Doctrine.