North ignores int'l backlash

Journalists walk past the Unha-3 rocket as it sits on a launch pad during a guided media tour by North Korean authorities in Cholsan, northwest of Pyongyang, in April earlier this year. The rocket exploded moments after take-off in its takeoff, but the country seems to have achieved success with a second rocket launched Wednesday. / Reuters-Yonhap

Pyongyang takes domestic concerns as top priority, experts say

By Kim Young-jin

North Korea’s launching of a satellite on the back of a long-range rocket, Wednesday, if confirmed successful was a much-needed domestic victory for young leader Kim Jong-un, and outweighed the increased isolation it is likely to incur in the short-term.

Eyes now turn to the UN Security Council (UNSC), where Seoul and its allies are expected to push hard to tighten sanctions following the move that violated existing U.N. resolutions. Closely watched will be China, the North’s main ally, which has a history of protecting its neighbor.

The launch, which came with little fanfare, came as Kim works to grip power days before the 1st anniversary of the death of his late father Kim Jong-il, who he succeeded as leader and is likely to be played up as a symbol of a successful transfer of power from father to son.

While seen as part of efforts to develop long-range nuclear weapons capabilities, the move has major internal implications as well, watchers said.

“I think for regime consolidation it is very valuable to him and his close supporters, the coalition he is putting together,” Daniel Pinkston, an analyst with the International Crisis Group said. “It is quite valuable internally in the domestic politics of transition.”

Pinkston said the North was still a long way from a credible ability to deliver a nuclear warhead on the back of an intercontinental ballistic missile, but that the launch would add variables such as the potential ability to put anti-satellite debris into orbit that could disable U.S satellites, though such a move would be very unlikely. It “expands the realm of asymmetric tools they can employ,” he said.

Kim has been working to tighten his power over the military as the regime in recent years has sought to shift power to the Korean Workers’ Party, a move seen as tied to efforts to modernize its economy.

“Morale among the military has declined,” Korea University professor Yoo Ho-yeol said. “If the launch succeeds, they might feel confident in Kim Jong-un and give them the sense that they are controlling part of the state’s resources.”

It also ties in with Kim’s campaign to develop the nation’s capacity in science and technology. The Swiss-educated leader is said to be pushing information technology as a way to kick start the moribund economy and recently reform the education system to give students another year of schooling.

Attention now swings to the response of the international community as the UNSC was expected to convene on the matter.

Seoul says it will push hard to make Pyongyang feel a deeper pinch for the move. A presidential statement by the council following the North’s failed launch in April promised unspecified further actions for the move. Officials have floated the idea of expanding the number of entities and individuals placed under existing sanctions.

It remains to be seen how China, which quickly condemned the move, will handle the situation at the UNSC, where it is veto-wielding permanent member. After the last launch it worked to limit the number of new entities to sanction.

The launch came at an inopportune time for Beijing, which is transferring power to new President Xi Jinping. Analysts say while Xi is likely to maintain a policy prioritizing North Korean stability, its new generation of leaders, including military circle are better educated in affairs in both Koreas. Its actions at the UNSC will help gauge how it will handle its neighbor in the future.

Regardless, Seoul is likely to push for some action.

“If the Chinese are not willing, I think you’ll see a so-called ‘coalition of willing’ ― the U.S. South Korea, Japan and other likeminded states making efforts to take multilateral actions to raise the costs for North Korea,” Pinkston said. Pyongyang, however, will likely use success to justify what it calls its “peaceful intent” to put a satellite into orbit, and try to curry support against the sanctions regime.