Chances of Trump-Kim meeting at APEC grow slim

A summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears unlikely at next week’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in Shenzhen, China, a Cheong Wa Dae official and security analysts said Thursday, despite Trump’s earlier talk of a potential meeting.

The assessment comes as the Republican Party’s sweeping losses in the Nov. 3 U.S. midterm elections have weakened Trump’s momentum for unconventional diplomatic initiatives such as a meeting with Kim.

Pressing international issues are also expected to dominate any talks involving the U.S. on the sidelines of APEC, including a possible one-on-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and three-way talks that would also involve Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We see little possibility of North Korea participating in multilateral events on occasions such as APEC, and little possibility of U.S.-North Korea contact taking place on that occasion,” the Cheong Wa Dae official said during a press briefing.

While acknowledging uncertainties, the official said, “the chances of contact outside the APEC period might be marginally higher.”

Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, voiced a similar view, ruling out a formal summit while leaving open a slim chance of a brief encounter.

“The possibility of a summit around APEC period is zero,” Yang said. “As for an encounter, chances are not high either, but even a 1 percent possibility is still a possibility, so preparations are necessary.”

Kwak Jin-o, a research professor at Pai Chai University, said a trip to China by the North Korean leader for a possible meeting with Trump would require preparations well in advance, suggesting it is already too late to arrange the summit.

“For Kim Jong-un to make a move, preparations should already have been made,” he said.

Moon Chung-in, a professor emeritus at Yonsei University, also pointed to the absence of groundwork, along with Pyongyang’s lingering distrust following the collapse of the 2019 Hanoi summit.

“For a summit to take place, Washington would need to appoint a special envoy, establish preliminary contacts, set an agenda and form a task force to support the negotiations,” Moon said. “None of these preparations appear to be underway.”

Moon dismissed speculation that Kim might agree to a spontaneous meeting, arguing that the North Korean leader would demand concrete incentives in exchange for curbing nuclear activities.

“Kim will not come out just for a showcase. He still has the trauma of Hanoi,” he said.

Bureaucratic considerations within North Korea's foreign ministry are another reason Moon sees little possibility of such a meeting.

“Former Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho was reportedly purged following the Hanoi summit’s collapse. Even though Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui wields considerable power, she would be reluctant to take such a risk without assurances of a successful outcome,” Moon said.

The prospect of a Trump-Kim meeting drew attention after The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 18 that Trump was seeking talks with Kim, potentially during his November trip to China. Trump said the next day that he expected to meet Kim before the year’s end.

Expectations faded on Oct. 19, however, when Trump said “I don’t know” about a possible meeting in China, with the Republic Party’s Nov. 3 midterms defeat further dimming hopes.

Korean Peninsula likely to take back seat

Questions remain over how much attention issues on the Korean Peninsula will receive during the APEC gathering.

The Cheong Wa Dae official said Seoul is closely following reports of a possible U.S.-China-Russia summit and communicating with relevant countries.

“We cannot rule out the possibility of issues concerning the Korean Peninsula being discussed, so we are closely following the situation and maintaining the necessary communication with relevant countries,” he said.

Analysts, however, were skeptical that the peninsula would feature prominently, given competing priorities such as nuclear arms control and the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.

“I do not see much possibility of issues concerning the Korean Peninsula being discussed in depth, although I would not rule out a passing reference to peace and stability on the peninsula,” Yang said.

Moon also said Trump’s likely focus on resolving the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran could overshadow North Korea, further reducing Pyongyang’s willingness to engage.

Kwak similarly expected any discussions to remain broad, potentially limited to denuclearization, and doubted Seoul would play a central role given Pyongyang’s opposition to its involvement.

“South Korea’s role is important, but bringing South Korea into the discussion would draw objections from North Korea,” he said.

Korea Times reporter Kim Bo-kyoung contributed to this article.