OPCON transfer unlikely during Trump's term, ex-US diplomat says

The transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the United States to South Korea is unlikely to happen during the remaining two years of the Trump administration, former acting U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Joseph Yun said Tuesday. He said there is no consensus in Washington that conditions are met, adding that the same applies to Seoul’s nuclear submarine ambitions and its U.S. investment pledge.

“There is no consensus in Washington, for example, that conditions are ready for wartime OPCON to be transferred,” Yun, who also served as the State Department’s special representative for North Korea policy, said during the second Korea-U.S. Diplomatic Forum, which he joined remotely from the U.S.

“Conditions are factors. It is never going to be ready but that still remains an issue and I cannot imagine it moving very rapidly,” he added.

His remarks came about a week after the U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of Congress, both House and Senate, and amid differences between the two allies over the timing and conditions of the transfer. South Korea wants to reclaim wartime OPCON by 2028, while the U.S. favors the first quarter of 2029.

Yun said the two countries approach the issue differently, and that the Trump administration’s weakening authority in its final two years would make the transfer harder to complete.

“The reality is that OPCON transfer is not a political issue in Washington. It is a technical issue,” he said.

“As (politicians) go into the last two years, their authority and influence is a little bit weaker compared to bureaucracy and uniform military, which is why I think it is harder to say we will do it within two years.”

He also cautioned that regaining OPCON would inevitably reshape the alliance.

“South Korean people want to have the OPCON back with no weakening of the alliance. That is impossible. There is no way Koreans can have OPCON back without weakening the alliance structure,” Yun said.

“If the Korean capability is so great, a little bit of weakening of the alliance is OK ... But that's a political decision South Korea has to make.”

He added, however, that there will be no withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea, as their presence enjoys bipartisan support, while stressing that the alliance would remain foundationally sound.

Yun expected similarly slow progress on other bilateral negotiations that have been delayed amid friction between the allies, including nuclear and investment issues.

“There is no consensus in Washington that Korea ought to have enrichment or nuclear submarines, so those things I find will be very difficult,” he said.

Regarding South Korea's investment pledges, he said many Americans are “having trouble fundamentally grasping why there is a commitment for this huge amount of money in certain sectors in the United States,” and that he did not expect it to materialize within the next two years.

Yun also ruled out a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, saying Kim sees nothing to gain.

“(Kim) has no interest in meeting with Trump. So I just don't think such a meeting would happen,” Yun said, noting that Pyongyang is no longer isolated, given its backing from Russia and China.

The central question, according to Yun, is whether the Trump administration would acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear weapons state — a step he said would draw criticism from Democrats.

“Supposing it did happen and Trump has nothing to say on denuclearization, I think the reception from the Democratic Party in the United States will be very poor. He would be heavily criticized, and because really denuclearization of North Korea will remain the central pillar of the U.S. policy, even though a lot of people will acknowledge that this is not something that could happen sooner,” he said.

Steel stresses economic partnership

At the same forum, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel emphasized the alliance’s dual role in security and economics.

“Security and prosperity go together. Seventy-six years ago, we fought together to protect the young Republic of Korea. Since then, our economies and culture have become tightly intertwined. We are not only security allies but indispensable economic partners,” she said, adding the Korea-U.S. alliance should grow together.

In an apparent reference to the dispute over U.S.-headquartered e-commerce company Coupang, Steel also called for fair treatment of American firms.

“Of course, there is always room to do more as our two presidents committed," she said. "American companies in Korea deserve to compete on a level playing field that starts with understanding each other better.”