Seoul risks being sidelined if US-NK talks resume, Victor Cha warns

President Lee Jae Myung should maintain close communication with U.S. President Donald Trump to ensure Seoul is not sidelined if Washington resumes direct talks with North Korea, veteran Korea expert Victor Cha said Monday.

Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts during Trump’s first term to stay closely engaged with the U.S. president whenever Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“You remember Shinzo Abe during Trump 1.0. Every meeting that Trump had with Kim Jong-un, Shinzo Abe came to Washington to ensure that President Trump didn't sell out Japanese equities in any sort of deal with the North Korean leader,” Cha said during a forum titled “Changes in U.S. Security Strategy and Their Implications for the Korean Peninsula” hosted by the Korea-America Association. He joined the event virtually.

“I think it's very important for the South Korean president to think the same way about this,” he said, adding that Lee and Trump appear to have developed a relatively good relationship.

He said there is currently little evidence of formal diplomatic preparation between Washington and Pyongyang, including no substantive interagency process underway to prepare for dialogue. That makes the personal decisions of Trump and Kim particularly important, he said.

“It's entirely possible that the South Korean president should be able to speak freely with the U.S. president to make sure that South Korea is not cut out of this and that there is some wall for South Korea in the resumption of dialogue,” he said.

He warned that Kim may have little incentive to involve Seoul in renewed diplomacy. “Kim Jong-un would be happy to do all of this without engaging South Korea at all.”

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in meeting Kim again, raising speculation that direct U.S.-North Korea diplomacy could resume despite the continued breakdown in inter-Korean relations, which have largely remained frozen since Kim declared relations between the two Koreas to be those of “two hostile states” in late 2023.

Cha said Pyongyang may eventually respond to Trump’s overtures, but is likely to wait for developments that could strengthen its negotiating position.

“I think they are going to bide their time and wait a little bit — certainly wait until after the Trump-Xi summit in September, and most likely wait until after the results of the U.S. midterm elections, which in Pyongyang's mind they may see as giving them a stronger hand.”

He also suggested what he described as a “cold peace” initiative, in which the U.S. considers “prioritizing dialogue to avoid miscalculation and escalation and threat reduction” with North Korea.

At the same time, Cha said renewed diplomacy with Pyongyang should be accompanied by stronger trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.

“There are real opportunities right now to press the accelerator on U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation, on missile defense and on joint production of interceptors. In government, we always try to make lemonade out of the lemon and we really need to do that now,” he said.

Other Korean panelists were more skeptical about making concessions to encourage North Korea to return to talks, particularly amid concerns that Seoul could face what is often described as “Korea passing” — being bypassed in negotiations directly affecting the Korean Peninsula.

Hwang Tae-hee, a professor of political science and international studies at Yonsei University, said the current direction of diplomacy risked playing into Pyongyang’s hands.

“It is concerning that narratives are playing out exactly as North Korea wants. Setting aside the issue of ‘Korea passing,’ there is no one advocating for South Korea’s position and our government is being dragged along,” Hwang said, adding that he doubts that Seoul should sacrifice so much just to meet with North Korea's Kim.

Concerns also focused on Trump’s move to scale back South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises as part of efforts to create conditions for dialogue.

Choi Byung-hyuk, an adjunct senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former deputy commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, raised concerns over scaling down joint drills exercises to resume talks with Pyongyang, which could weaken deterrence.

“It could send a dangerous signal to our main enemy — namely North Korea — that if they hold talks with Trump and manage things somehow, they can take it as a wrong message that it is possible to push for reductions in joint military exercises without even discussing denuclearization. This message could ultimately severely undermine our deterrence against North Korea.”

Trade weaponization concerns

Beyond security issues, Cha said South Korea should prepare for continued trade pressure from Washington while remaining firmly anchored in its alliance with the U.S.

He said both the United States and China have increasingly used trade as an instrument of strategic leverage, although he distinguished U.S. protectionist tariffs from what he described as China’s broader pattern of economic coercion.

“Every American ally in this region is dealing with the weaponization of trade by the two leading economic powers in the international system — the United States and China … I would not assume that the tariff chapter is closed,” he said, urging the U.S. to stop levvying tariffs on its allies.

Despite growing uncertainty over U.S. policy, he argued that South Korea still lacks a viable strategic alternative to its alliance with Washington.

“There really isn't an alternative,” Cha said. “On the China side, South Korea's best position vis-à-vis China is really based on a strong alliance with the United States. There is no substitute for that.”